<https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/nasa-indefinitely-delays-return-of-starliner-to-review-propulsion-data/>

Looks like Starliner isn't returning to Earth anytime soon.

Watch this space, where The Running Man advised that...
> <https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/nasa-indefinitely-delays-return-of-starliner-to-review-propulsion-data/>
>
> Looks like Starliner isn't returning to Earth anytime soon.

It's likely that a return will happen within 45 days of launch (see
your reference).

Also, if Butch and Suni don't return within that time, I would expect
that the station will require resupply somewhat sooner than the current
schedule. There is a possibility of a Crew Dragon returning with 5
astronauts (it's been studied, AIUI) at the cost of not taking all the
down-cargo; I think that 6 astronauts is less likely without an
interior re-fit. ISTR that the design allowed for up to 7 astronauts
in 2 rows, but the 4 + cargo configuration was a better fit for NASA's
plans.

/dps

--
"It wasn't just a splash in the pan"
-- lectricbikes.com

On 2024-06-22 6:36 a.m., Snidely wrote:
> Watch this space, where The Running Man advised that...
>> <https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/nasa-indefinitely-delays-return-of-starliner-to-review-propulsion-data/>
>>
>> Looks like Starliner isn't returning to Earth anytime soon.
>
> It's likely that a return will happen within 45 days of launch (see your
> reference).
>
> Also, if Butch and Suni don't return within that time, I would expect
> that the station will require resupply somewhat sooner than the current
> schedule.  There is a possibility of a Crew Dragon returning with 5
> astronauts (it's been studied, AIUI) at the cost of not taking all the
> down-cargo; I think that 6 astronauts is less likely without an interior
> re-fit.  ISTR that the design allowed for up to 7 astronauts in 2 rows,
> but the 4 + cargo configuration was a better fit for NASA's plans.

I'm not sure if "Crew Dragon" can fly uncrewed. That is, could a Dragon
capsule configured to carry a crew, go dock with ISS without a crew? I
see no reason why not, but that doesn't mean it is possible.

Alain Fournier

On 22/06/2024 03:36 Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> wrote:
> Watch this space, where The Running Man advised that...
>> <https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/nasa-indefinitely-delays-return-of-starliner-to-review-propulsion-data/>
>>
>> Looks like Starliner isn't returning to Earth anytime soon.
>
> It's likely that a return will happen within 45 days of launch (see
> your reference).
>
> Also, if Butch and Suni don't return within that time, I would expect
> that the station will require resupply somewhat sooner than the current
> schedule. There is a possibility of a Crew Dragon returning with 5
> astronauts (it's been studied, AIUI) at the cost of not taking all the
> down-cargo; I think that 6 astronauts is less likely without an
> interior re-fit. ISTR that the design allowed for up to 7 astronauts
> in 2 rows, but the 4 + cargo configuration was a better fit for NASA's
> plans.
>
Of course the return journey will take place within 45 days of launch. The question is whether
it will be with or without astronauts.

On 2024-06-22 15:32, Alain Fournier wrote:
> On 2024-06-22 6:36 a.m., Snidely wrote:
>> Watch this space, where The Running Man advised that...
>>> <https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/nasa-indefinitely-delays-return-of-starliner-to-review-propulsion-data/>
>>>
>>> Looks like Starliner isn't returning to Earth anytime soon.
>>
>> It's likely that a return will happen within 45 days of launch (see
>> your reference).
>>
>> Also, if Butch and Suni don't return within that time, I would expect
>> that the station will require resupply somewhat sooner than the
>> current schedule.  There is a possibility of a Crew Dragon returning
>> with 5 astronauts (it's been studied, AIUI) at the cost of not taking
>> all the down-cargo; I think that 6 astronauts is less likely without
>> an interior re-fit.  ISTR that the design allowed for up to 7
>> astronauts in 2 rows, but the 4 + cargo configuration was a better fit
>> for NASA's plans.
>
> I'm not sure if "Crew Dragon" can fly uncrewed. That is, could a Dragon
> capsule configured to carry a crew, go dock with ISS without a crew? I
> see no reason why not, but that doesn't mean it is possible.

Crew Dragon's first demonstration flight to the ISS was uncrewed
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crew_Dragon_Demo-1). It seems unlikely
that they would remove that capability afterwards.

Alain Fournier presented the following explanation :
> On 2024-06-22 6:36 a.m., Snidely wrote:
>> Watch this space, where The Running Man advised that...
>>> <https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/nasa-indefinitely-delays-return-of-starliner-to-review-propulsion-data/>
>>>
>>> Looks like Starliner isn't returning to Earth anytime soon.
>>
>> It's likely that a return will happen within 45 days of launch (see your
>> reference).
>>
>> Also, if Butch and Suni don't return within that time, I would expect that
>> the station will require resupply somewhat sooner than the current
>> schedule.  There is a possibility of a Crew Dragon returning with 5
>> astronauts (it's been studied, AIUI) at the cost of not taking all the
>> down-cargo; I think that 6 astronauts is less likely without an interior
>> re-fit.  ISTR that the design allowed for up to 7 astronauts in 2 rows, but
>> the 4 + cargo configuration was a better fit for NASA's plans.
>
> I'm not sure if "Crew Dragon" can fly uncrewed. That is, could a Dragon
> capsule configured to carry a crew, go dock with ISS without a crew? I see no
> reason why not, but that doesn't mean it is possible.
>
>
> Alain Fournier

The problem is having a Crew Dragon ready and a Falcon to loft it. The
normal Dragon operation is autonomous. Crew 9 is expected to go aloft
in August. Polaris Dawn will go before then, but has reconfigured the
forward hatch.

Falcon boosters seem to be turned in 2-3 weeks, but you need a second
stage as well. I don't know how far ahead those are. There may be
differences in the Uppers used for crew, although I imagine SpaceX
wouldn't want to do that.

My guess is that a rescue Dragon would launch with a CDR and PLT just
to make sure the flight has contingencies covered, but I'm neither NASA
nor SpaceX.

/dps

--
"Maintaining a really good conspiracy requires far more intelligent
application, by a large number of people, than the world can readily
supply."

Sam Plusnet

On 22/06/2024 15:43 Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> wrote:
> Alain Fournier presented the following explanation :
>> On 2024-06-22 6:36 a.m., Snidely wrote:
>>> Watch this space, where The Running Man advised that...
>>>> <https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/nasa-indefinitely-delays-return-of-starliner-to-review-propulsion-data/>
>>>>
>>>> Looks like Starliner isn't returning to Earth anytime soon.
>>>
>>> It's likely that a return will happen within 45 days of launch (see your
>>> reference).
>>>
>>> Also, if Butch and Suni don't return within that time, I would expect that
>>> the station will require resupply somewhat sooner than the current
>>> schedule. There is a possibility of a Crew Dragon returning with 5
>>> astronauts (it's been studied, AIUI) at the cost of not taking all the
>>> down-cargo; I think that 6 astronauts is less likely without an interior
>>> re-fit. ISTR that the design allowed for up to 7 astronauts in 2 rows, but
>>> the 4 + cargo configuration was a better fit for NASA's plans.
>>
>> I'm not sure if "Crew Dragon" can fly uncrewed. That is, could a Dragon
>> capsule configured to carry a crew, go dock with ISS without a crew? I see no
>> reason why not, but that doesn't mean it is possible.
>>
>>
>> Alain Fournier
>
> The problem is having a Crew Dragon ready and a Falcon to loft it. The
> normal Dragon operation is autonomous. Crew 9 is expected to go aloft
> in August. Polaris Dawn will go before then, but has reconfigured the
> forward hatch.
>
> Falcon boosters seem to be turned in 2-3 weeks, but you need a second
> stage as well. I don't know how far ahead those are. There may be
> differences in the Uppers used for crew, although I imagine SpaceX
> wouldn't want to do that.
>
> My guess is that a rescue Dragon would launch with a CDR and PLT just
> to make sure the flight has contingencies covered, but I'm neither NASA
> nor SpaceX.
>

How many seats does the Crew Dragon docked at the ISS have? At least 4 right?

On 2024-06-22 7:07 p.m., The Running Man wrote:
> On 22/06/2024 15:43 Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> wrote:
>> Alain Fournier presented the following explanation :
>>> On 2024-06-22 6:36 a.m., Snidely wrote:
>>>> Watch this space, where The Running Man advised that...
>>>>> <https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/nasa-indefinitely-delays-return-of-starliner-to-review-propulsion-data/>
>>>>>
>>>>> Looks like Starliner isn't returning to Earth anytime soon.
>>>>
>>>> It's likely that a return will happen within 45 days of launch (see your
>>>> reference).
>>>>
>>>> Also, if Butch and Suni don't return within that time, I would expect that
>>>> the station will require resupply somewhat sooner than the current
>>>> schedule. There is a possibility of a Crew Dragon returning with 5
>>>> astronauts (it's been studied, AIUI) at the cost of not taking all the
>>>> down-cargo; I think that 6 astronauts is less likely without an interior
>>>> re-fit. ISTR that the design allowed for up to 7 astronauts in 2 rows, but
>>>> the 4 + cargo configuration was a better fit for NASA's plans.
>>>
>>> I'm not sure if "Crew Dragon" can fly uncrewed. That is, could a Dragon
>>> capsule configured to carry a crew, go dock with ISS without a crew? I see no
>>> reason why not, but that doesn't mean it is possible.
>>>
>>>
>>> Alain Fournier
>>
>> The problem is having a Crew Dragon ready and a Falcon to loft it. The
>> normal Dragon operation is autonomous. Crew 9 is expected to go aloft
>> in August. Polaris Dawn will go before then, but has reconfigured the
>> forward hatch.
>>
>> Falcon boosters seem to be turned in 2-3 weeks, but you need a second
>> stage as well. I don't know how far ahead those are. There may be
>> differences in the Uppers used for crew, although I imagine SpaceX
>> wouldn't want to do that.
>>
>> My guess is that a rescue Dragon would launch with a CDR and PLT just
>> to make sure the flight has contingencies covered, but I'm neither NASA
>> nor SpaceX.
>>
>
> How many seats does the Crew Dragon docked at the ISS have? At least 4 right?

I wonder how easy it is to change the configuration. Could they send an
extra seat up and add it to the Crew Dragon docked at ISS?

Alain Fournier

Saturday, Alain Fournier observed:
> On 2024-06-22 7:07 p.m., The Running Man wrote:
>> On 22/06/2024 15:43 Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> wrote:
>>> Alain Fournier presented the following explanation :
>>>> On 2024-06-22 6:36 a.m., Snidely wrote:
>>>>> Watch this space, where The Running Man advised that...
>>>>>> <https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/nasa-indefinitely-delays-return-of-starliner-to-review-propulsion-data/>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Looks like Starliner isn't returning to Earth anytime soon.
>>>>>
>>>>> It's likely that a return will happen within 45 days of launch (see your
>>>>> reference).
>>>>>
>>>>> Also, if Butch and Suni don't return within that time, I would expect
>>>>> that
>>>>> the station will require resupply somewhat sooner than the current
>>>>> schedule. There is a possibility of a Crew Dragon returning with 5
>>>>> astronauts (it's been studied, AIUI) at the cost of not taking all the
>>>>> down-cargo; I think that 6 astronauts is less likely without an interior
>>>>> re-fit. ISTR that the design allowed for up to 7 astronauts in 2 rows,
>>>>> but
>>>>> the 4 + cargo configuration was a better fit for NASA's plans.
>>>>
>>>> I'm not sure if "Crew Dragon" can fly uncrewed. That is, could a Dragon
>>>> capsule configured to carry a crew, go dock with ISS without a crew? I
>>>> see no
>>>> reason why not, but that doesn't mean it is possible.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Alain Fournier
>>>
>>> The problem is having a Crew Dragon ready and a Falcon to loft it. The
>>> normal Dragon operation is autonomous. Crew 9 is expected to go aloft
>>> in August. Polaris Dawn will go before then, but has reconfigured the
>>> forward hatch.
>>>
>>> Falcon boosters seem to be turned in 2-3 weeks, but you need a second
>>> stage as well. I don't know how far ahead those are. There may be
>>> differences in the Uppers used for crew, although I imagine SpaceX
>>> wouldn't want to do that.
>>>
>>> My guess is that a rescue Dragon would launch with a CDR and PLT just
>>> to make sure the flight has contingencies covered, but I'm neither NASA
>>> nor SpaceX.
>>>
>>
>> How many seats does the Crew Dragon docked at the ISS have? At least 4
>> right?
>
> I wonder how easy it is to change the configuration. Could they send an extra
> seat up and add it to the Crew Dragon docked at ISS?
>
>
> Alain Fournier

Not according to the plans I've heard about. The area where additional
seats would go is under the current seats, and would require additional
hardware to be installed, not just a seat.

What I've heard is that one extra astronaut could be accomodated by
removing the in-cabin cargo and having the OEA lie down under the
seats. I'm not sure what they would do about the plugging in the suit
for that astronaut. And what would need to used for cushions.

/dps

--
"It wasn't just a splash in the pan"
-- lectricbikes.com

The Running Man suggested that ...
> On 22/06/2024 03:36 Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> wrote:
>> Watch this space, where The Running Man advised that...
>>> <https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/nasa-indefinitely-delays-return-of-starliner-to-review-propulsion-data/>
>>>
>>> Looks like Starliner isn't returning to Earth anytime soon.
>>
>> It's likely that a return will happen within 45 days of launch (see
>> your reference).
>>
>> Also, if Butch and Suni don't return within that time, I would expect
>> that the station will require resupply somewhat sooner than the current
>> schedule. There is a possibility of a Crew Dragon returning with 5
>> astronauts (it's been studied, AIUI) at the cost of not taking all the
>> down-cargo; I think that 6 astronauts is less likely without an
>> interior re-fit. ISTR that the design allowed for up to 7 astronauts
>> in 2 rows, but the 4 + cargo configuration was a better fit for NASA's
>> plans.
>>
>
> Of course the return journey will take place within 45 days of launch. The
> question is whether it will be with or without astronauts.

At this point, I'm expecting Starliner to return crewed. Taking the
additonal time allows for a broader analysis of the problems while
there is still an opportunity to collect more data at low risk, and
there isn't a hurry get home yet.

/dps

--
Yes, I have had a cucumber soda. Why do you ask?

On 2024-06-23 3:03 a.m., Snidely wrote:
> The Running Man suggested that ...
>> On 22/06/2024 03:36 Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> wrote:
>>> Watch this space, where The Running Man advised that...
>>>> <https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/nasa-indefinitely-delays-return-of-starliner-to-review-propulsion-data/>
>>>>
>>>> Looks like Starliner isn't returning to Earth anytime soon.
>>>
>>> It's likely that a return will happen within 45 days of launch (see
>>> your reference).
>>>
>>> Also, if Butch and Suni don't return within that time, I would expect
>>> that the station will require resupply somewhat sooner than the
>>> current schedule.  There is a possibility of a Crew Dragon returning
>>> with 5 astronauts (it's been studied, AIUI) at the cost of not taking
>>> all the down-cargo; I think that 6 astronauts is less likely without
>>> an interior re-fit.  ISTR that the design allowed for up to 7
>>> astronauts in 2 rows, but the 4 + cargo configuration was a better
>>> fit for NASA's plans.
>>>
>>
>> Of course the return journey will take place within 45 days of launch.
>> The question is whether  it will be with or without astronauts.
>
> At this point, I'm expecting Starliner to return crewed.  Taking the
> additonal time allows for a broader analysis of the problems while there
> is still an opportunity to collect more data at low risk, and there
> isn't a hurry get home yet.

So do I. Nonetheless, it is interesting to evaluate what contingency
plans can be drawn up.

Alain Fournier

On 23/06/2024 16:14 Alain Fournier <alain245@videotron.ca> wrote:
> On 2024-06-23 3:03 a.m., Snidely wrote:
>> The Running Man suggested that ...
>>> On 22/06/2024 03:36 Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>> Watch this space, where The Running Man advised that...
>>>>> <https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/nasa-indefinitely-delays-return-of-starliner-to-review-propulsion-data/>
>>>>>
>>>>> Looks like Starliner isn't returning to Earth anytime soon.
>>>>
>>>> It's likely that a return will happen within 45 days of launch (see
>>>> your reference).
>>>>
>>>> Also, if Butch and Suni don't return within that time, I would expect
>>>> that the station will require resupply somewhat sooner than the
>>>> current schedule.  There is a possibility of a Crew Dragon returning
>>>> with 5 astronauts (it's been studied, AIUI) at the cost of not taking
>>>> all the down-cargo; I think that 6 astronauts is less likely without
>>>> an interior re-fit.  ISTR that the design allowed for up to 7
>>>> astronauts in 2 rows, but the 4 + cargo configuration was a better
>>>> fit for NASA's plans.
>>>>
>>>
>>> Of course the return journey will take place within 45 days of launch.
>>> The question is whether  it will be with or without astronauts.
>>
>> At this point, I'm expecting Starliner to return crewed.  Taking the
>> additonal time allows for a broader analysis of the problems while there
>> is still an opportunity to collect more data at low risk, and there
>> isn't a hurry get home yet.
>
> So do I. Nonetheless, it is interesting to evaluate what contingency
> plans can be drawn up.
>

I'm not so sure. I believe NASA's unsure whether the thrusters can perform
a boostback burn for the duration needed. They could overheat and fail creating
a risk for the re-entry. The astronauts could be blown off-course or endure a
ballistic re-entry, which is something you don't want on a certification flight.

I predict Boeing will walk if NASA decides on an uncrewed landing. They
don't want to have to do another CFT flight, that's for sure.

Friday, The Running Man observed:
> <https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/nasa-indefinitely-delays-return-of-starliner-to-review-propulsion-data/>
>
> Looks like Starliner isn't returning to Earth anytime soon.

Likely to be late August or early-to-mid September. With or without
crew. Work being done to update and test the code capable of autonous
return last used on OFT2 and to complete evaluation of the firing
tests. See Eric Berger at /Ars Technica/ (arstechnica.com) for deeper
discussion.

/dps

--
potstickers, Japanese gyoza, Chinese dumplings, let's do it

On 08/08/2024 06:42 Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com> wrote:
> Friday, The Running Man observed:
>> <https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/nasa-indefinitely-delays-return-of-starliner-to-review-propulsion-data/>
>>
>> Looks like Starliner isn't returning to Earth anytime soon.
>
> Likely to be late August or early-to-mid September. With or without
> crew. Work being done to update and test the code capable of autonous
> return last used on OFT2 and to complete evaluation of the firing
> tests. See Eric Berger at /Ars Technica/ (arstechnica.com) for deeper
> discussion.
>

Boeing knows that if Starliner returns without crew the program is dead. So they're
pushing for a crewed return. If the crew dies Starliner is dead anyway so they might
as well try it and if they survive Boeing will argue that they want to start paid flights
next year.

I'm speculating that Sierra Nevada's Dream Chaser may replace Starliner if Boeing
pulls out.

Watch this space, where Snidely advised that...
> Friday, The Running Man observed:
>> <https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/nasa-indefinitely-delays-return-of-starliner-to-review-propulsion-data/>
>>
>> Looks like Starliner isn't returning to Earth anytime soon.
>
> Likely to be late August or early-to-mid September. With or without crew.
> Work being done to update and test the code capable of autonous return last
> used on OFT2 and to complete evaluation of the firing tests. See Eric Berger
> at /Ars Technica/ (arstechnica.com) for deeper discussion.
>

Eric also is interviewed on Ellie In Space, following the last press
conference, and shares his thoughts about what NASA may do for
Starliner's next flight.

<URL:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3A20R2DQoA>

/dps

--
Rule #0: Don't be on fire.
In case of fire, exit the building before tweeting about it.
(Sighting reported by Adam F)

On Friday, The Running Man queried:
> <https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/nasa-indefinitely-delays-return-of-starliner-to-review-propulsion-data/>
>
> Looks like Starliner isn't returning to Earth anytime soon.

Starliner seems set to undock on September 6, as a cargo return flight.

Eric Berger's update:
<URL:https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/>

Good summary from the day before:
<URL:https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/as-nasa-nears-major-decision-on-starliner-heres-what-we-know-and-what-we-dont/>

Still debate on which two astronauts will be the upload on Dragon Crew
9, mainly for the CDR seat, since Roscosmos' Aleksandr Gorbunov has a
treaty-based lock on a seat.

/dps

--
I have always been glad we weren't killed that night. I do not know
any particular reason, but I have always been glad.
_Roughing It_, Mark Twain