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sci / sci.geo.meteorology / [meteorology] quality of forcast models

SubjectAuthor
* [meteorology] quality of forcast modelsMichael Uplawski
`- Re: [meteorology] quality of forcast modelsDavid Dalton

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Subject: [meteorology] quality of forcast models
From: Michael Uplawski
Newsgroups: sci.geo.meteorology
Organization: mediocre
Date: Sun, 22 Dec 2024 09:55 UTC
Path: eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!feeder3.eternal-september.org!news.mb-net.net!open-news-network.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: michael.uplawski@uplawski.eu (Michael Uplawski)
Newsgroups: sci.geo.meteorology
Subject: [meteorology] quality of forcast models
Date: Sun, 22 Dec 2024 10:55:54 +0100
Organization: mediocre
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Good morning

My attempt to discuss the quality of meteorological models in a
German speaking newsgroup de.sci.geo >1 has not been successful.

I began this morning to document what I call a total failure
>2.

When you do office work, you are probably not aware of the trouble
that wrong forecasts can create. What I wish is something halfway
reliable as regards rain and wind. I do not care much for the amount
of rain, but I do a lot for the wind-speeds.

All models that I have access to, are failing. I am obliged to
prepare for just any situation when I go to work outside and
oftentimes must organise the day differently. Imagine that you move
a working platform at 6km/h maximal speed when an unexpected CB
chases you. I do not like that.

The models that I know for now are GFS, WRF, AROME, IconD2, IconEu,
ARPEGE.
----------------
1) <news:AABnLGFp6HkAABeG.A3.flnews@ferrat.uplawski.eu>
2) <https://www.uplawski.eu/meteo/forecast_quality.html>
--
“When you feel there is an unfair burdon on your shoulders
well – that's just the way it is sometimes” (Winston Groom/Forest Gump)

Subject: Re: [meteorology] quality of forcast models
From: David Dalton
Newsgroups: sci.geo.meteorology
Organization: Eternal September
Date: Mon, 23 Dec 2024 04:34 UTC
References: 1
Path: eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: dalton@nfld.com (David Dalton)
Newsgroups: sci.geo.meteorology
Subject: Re: [meteorology] quality of forcast models
Date: Mon, 23 Dec 2024 01:04:04 -0330
Organization: Eternal September
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On Dec 22, 2024, Michael Uplawski wrote
(in article<AABnZ+IqZVkAADyO.A3.flnews@ferrat.uplawski.eu>):

> Good morning
>
> My attempt to discuss the quality of meteorological models in a
> German speaking newsgroup de.sci.geo >1 has not been successful.
>
> I began this morning to document what I call a total failure
> > 2.
>
> When you do office work, you are probably not aware of the trouble
> that wrong forecasts can create. What I wish is something halfway
> reliable as regards rain and wind. I do not care much for the amount
> of rain, but I do a lot for the wind-speeds.
>
> All models that I have access to, are failing. I am obliged to
> prepare for just any situation when I go to work outside and
> oftentimes must organise the day differently. Imagine that you move
> a working platform at 6km/h maximal speed when an unexpected CB
> chases you. I do not like that.
>
> The models that I know for now are GFS, WRF, AROME, IconD2, IconEu,
> ARPEGE.
> ----------------
> 1) <news:AABnLGFp6HkAABeG.A3.flnews@ferrat.uplawski.eu>
> 2)<https://www.uplawski.eu/meteo/forecast_quality.html>

There has been some talk lately of using AI to extend
the length of accuracy of forecasts. Perhaps someone
else on this newsgroup knows more about that than
I do; I’m a geophysicist, not a meteorologist.

--
David Dalton dalton@nfld.com https://www.nfld.com/~dalton (home page)
https://www.nfld.com/~dalton/dtales.html Salmon on the Thorns (mystic page)
“And now the angry morning; Gives the early signs of warning; You must
face alone the plans you make; Decisions they will try to break" (S. McL.)

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