The red state murder rate was 33% higher than the blue state murder
rate in both 2021 and 2022. 2022 was the 23rd consecutive year that
murder plagued Trump-voting states at far higher levels than
Biden-voting states. 8 out of the 10 states with the highest murder
rates in 2022 voted for Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020. From 2000
to 2022, the average red state murder rate was 24% higher than the
average blue state murder rate. Red states like Mississippi,
Louisiana, and Alabama are America�s murder capitals and have had the
highest three murder rates for 15 of the last 23 years. The excuse
that sky high red state murder rates are because of their blue cities
is without merit. Even after removing the county with the largest
city
from red states, and not from blue states, red state murder rates
were
still 20% higher in 2021 and 16% higher in 2022.

House Republicans held three field hearings on violent crime last year in
New York City, Chicago, and Washington DC. These hearings should have
been
held in the murder-plagued states of Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama.
In 2023, Speaker Johnson�s hometown of Shreveport, Louisiana had a murder
rate 8 times higher (41.1) than Minority Leader Jeffries� hometown of
Brooklyn, New York (5.0), 6 times higher than Nancy Pelosi�s San
Francisco, California (6.6), and more than 7 times higher than the
national average (5.5). Our 2023 report in the Red State Murder Problem
series found that murder rates were significantly higher in red states
than blue states every year from 2000 to 2020. Over these 21 years, the
red state murder rate was 23% higher than the blue state murder rate. Our
analysis of the latest CDC data found that 2021 and 2022 were no
exception.

This report analyzes homicide data from 2021 and 2022 for all 50 states
from the Center of Disease Control Wonder�s National Center for Health
Statistics Mortality Data. Data is based on death certificates collected
by state registries and provided to the National Vital Statistics System.
Like in our previous report, we chose CDC data over FBI data because it�s
more up to date and does not rely on voluntary reporting from counties
and
states. All states are required to report mortality data to the CDC while
they�re only encouraged to report crime data to the FBI. To allow for
comparison across states, we calculated the state�s per capita murder
rate, the number of murders per 100,000 residents, and categorized states
by their presidential vote in the 2020 election, resulting in an even
25-25 state split.

We found that murder rates were down 5% nationwide in 2022, but a red
state murder gap still persists. Murder rates in red states were 33%
higher than in blue states in both 2021 and 2022. As in 2019 and 2020,
Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama hold the first, second, and third
highest murder rates in the country, respectively. The rest of the 10
states with the highest murder rates include the usual suspects�South
Carolina, Missouri, Tennessee, New Mexico, and Georgia. States with the
highest murder rates continue to be dominated by red states, not
perennial
blue states like New York and California. Even when we removed the county
with the largest city in red states (and kept them in for blue states),
murder rates in red states were still 20% higher in 2021 and 16% higher
in
2022. This is not a blue cities in red states problem.

Our analysis confirms that murder rates have been higher in red states
than blue states every year this century. Yet, the prevalent media and
political narrative is that crime is rampant in Democrat-run states and
cities when the reality is that people are far safer in New York City
than
in over a dozen red states. The murder crisis continues to be far higher
in red states in 2021 and 2022.

Murder rates in red states were 33% higher than in blue states in both
2021 and 2022. In 2021, the average red state murder rate was 9.0 per
100,000 residents while the average blue state murder rate was 6.8 per
100,000. In 2022, both these numbers dropped slightly to 8.5 per 100,000
residents and 6.4 per 100,000 residents, respectively. If blue states had
a murder rate as high as red states, they would have seen 4,255
additional
murders in 2021 and 3,971 additional murders in 2022.

While murder rates thankfully dropped in both red and blue states in
2022,
red states still see a murder rate significantly higher than blue states
have ever seen. Over the past 23 years, the murder rate in blue states
hit
its peak in 2021 at 6.8, significantly lower than red states� peak at 9.0
the same year. Red states haven�t seen a murder rate under 6.8 since
2015,
when the murder rate was 6.4. Red states clearly have a murder problem
that defies the easy media narrative prevalent today. Mississippi,
Louisiana, and Alabama continue to dominate the top three spots.

Since 2016, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama have had the three
highest
murder rates in the country. This trend actually goes back to 2008, with
just one year, 2015, where Maryland replaced Alabama in the top three.
These three red states have consistently had the highest murder rates for
over 15 years now. You would never know it based on the media.

For example, Republicans and the media constantly talk about rampant
crime
in California and New York, but those two states� murder rates don�t even
crack the top 25. In 2021, California had the 26th highest murder rate
and
New York had the 33rd highest rate. In 2022, California had the 30th and
New York had the 35th highest murder rates. Mississippi and Louisiana�s
murder rates have been more than three times California�s over the past
two years. And more than four times New York�s. If California had the
same
murder rate as Mississippi, 5,101 more people would have been killed in
2022. If New York had the same murder rate as Louisiana, 2,814 more
people
would have died.

The rest of the top 10 states with the highest murder rates in 2021 and
2022 include usual suspects like New Mexico, Missouri, South Carolina,
Tennessee, and Georgia. In 2021, 6 out of the 10 states with the highest
murder rates voted for Donald Trump in 2020. In 2022, 8 out of 10 voted
for Donald Trump. Red states like Tennessee and South Carolina have
consistently been in the top 10 since 2000, with Arkansas joining the mix
in 2004 and Missouri in 2008. Blue states like New Mexico and Georgia
have
consistently been in the top 10 since 2000. Maryland and Illinois were in
the top 10 in 2021 but dropped off in 2022 when their murder rates
decreased by 16% and 15%, respectively. They were replaced in the top 10
by Arkansas and Alaska. Alaska saw an unexpected 51% increase in
homicides
from 2021 to 2022, bringing them from the 24th highest murder rate to the
10th highest.

The bottom line is that red states have dominated, and continue to
dominate, the top 10 states with the highest murder rates since 2000.

Even when large cities are removed from red states, murder rates are
still
higher.

Red states have a ready excuse for their high murder rates: the blue
cities located within them. This is laughable. First of all, blue states
have more blue cities than red states. That�s what makes them blue.
Second, the numbers don�t lie even when giving red states some extra
help.

We removed all of the murders in the county with the largest city for 22
of 25 red states. Three red states�North Dakota, Wyoming, and
Idaho�didn�t
have large enough cities to perform this exercise, so we used their
original rate. We did not give this advantage to blue states. Even with
this special help, the red state murder problem still persisted.
(Information on which counties were removed is in the methods section
below.)

In 2021, after removing the largest cities, red states still had a murder
rate 20% higher than blue states. Even after removing Jackson and New
Orleans, Mississippi and Louisiana still had the two highest murder rates
in the country. Alabama still held the number three spot, and South
Carolina the number five spot. Removing big blue cities from red states
didn�t make much of a difference in state rankings.

In 2022, red states still had a murder rate 16% higher than blue states
after removing their largest cities. Alabama actually jumped from the
number three spot to the number one spot. Mississippi held the second
spot, New Mexico (a blue state that did not get added help) the third,
and
Louisiana the fourth. So, while there was some small movement of states
in
this exercise, the theme stayed the same: red states continued to
dominate
the states with the highest murder rates, even after we gave them the
advantage of removing their largest city.

But we shouldn�t have to remove these cities from our analysis because
blue cities in red states are still beholden to red state laws. Laws that
make it easy for criminals to traffic and buy guns (86% of homicides are
committed with a gun). Laws that underinvest in cities, law enforcement,
and social programs. Laws that are responsible for the highest poverty
rates and the highest gun violence rates in the country. The fact that
murder rates are high all across red states, not just in cities, tells us
that state laws play a part in their crime problem. Blue states spend 33%
more money per capita on policing than red states.

For years, Republicans have struck political gold by accusing Democrats
of
�defunding the police.� And for many voters, those accusations have
stuck.
In 2022, 48% of voters believed that the Democratic party supports
defunding the police. But the data tells a different story.

Using the 2021 Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances from
the US Census Bureau, we analyzed police spending in all 50 states. We
found that blue states spent 33% more money per capita on policing than
red states. In 2021, blue states on average spent $453.67 per resident on
policing while red states only spent $341.37 per resident.

Many of the states accused of �defunding the police,� like California,
New
York, and Illinois, actually spent the most on policing. California spent
the most on policing at $634.53 per resident. New York spent the third
most at $539.92. And Illinois came in sixth place at $471.26. Eight out
of
10 states spending the most on policing are blue states, joined by red
states Alaska and Florida. And those blue states aren�t just blue,
they�re
the bluest of states�California, New York, Maryland, Illinois, New
Jersey,
Rhode Island, and Minnesota.

In 2021, states on average spent $406.68 per resident on policing. Out of
the 25 red states, 23 spent less than the national average. About half of
blue states spent more or the same and half spent less than the national
average. High crime states like Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama
aren�t
investing in policing at the same level as blue states. Mississippi came
in the 44th spot out of 50, spending 34% less than the national average.
Louisiana did a bit better, coming in 27th place spending 15% less than
the national average. Alabama took the 39th spot, spending 29% less than
the average. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell�s home state of
Kentucky came in dead last, spending 43% less than the national average.
For perspective, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer�s home state of New
York came in third place, spending 33% more on policing than the average
state and 173% more than Minority Leader Mitch McConnell�s home state.
And
it�s not because there�s more crime in New York�quite the opposite.
Kentucky�s 2021 homicide rate was double New York�s, 9.0 compared to 4.5.
It�s ironic that Republicans accuse Democrats of defunding the police
when
their states are the ones spending the least on policing. Conclusion

Violent crime and homicide rates both fell in 2022. Preliminary data for
2023 shows that hopeful trend accelerating. But if you listened to
Republicans, you would think crime is skyrocketing, specifically in blue
states and cities. While murder rates have fallen, they�re still
significantly higher in red states than blue states. There are several
reasons for high crime rates�poverty, lax gun laws, a lack of social
services�but voting for Democrats is not one of them.