Michael Ejercito wrote:
> HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
>> Michael Ejercito wrote:
>>> HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
>>>> Michael Ejercito wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> https://www.reddit.com/r/LockdownSkepticism/comments/1g7m74h/vaccinating_care_home_residents_reduced_deaths/
>>>>>
>>>>> Vaccinating care home residents reduced deaths, but the effect was small
>>>>> – new study
>>>>> Published: October 18, 2024 8:42am EDT
>>>>> Authors
>>>>> David Paton
>>>>> Chair of Industrial Economics, Nottingham University Business School,
>>>>> University of Nottingham
>>>>>
>>>>> Sourafel Girma
>>>>> Professor of Industrial Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences,
>>>>> University of Nottingham
>>>>>
>>>>> Disclosure statement
>>>>> David Paton is a member of HART (Health Advisory and Recovery Team).
>>>>>
>>>>> Sourafel Girma does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive
>>>>> funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this
>>>>> article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their
>>>>> academic appointment.
>>>>>
>>>>> Partners
>>>>> University of Nottingham
>>>>>
>>>>> University of Nottingham provides funding as a founding partner of The
>>>>> Conversation UK.
>>>>>
>>>>> View all partners
>>>>>
>>>>> CC BY ND
>>>>> We believe in the free flow of information
>>>>> Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under a Creative
>>>>> Commons license.
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>>>>> Print
>>>>> Vaccinating older people probably did avert some deaths in 2021, but the
>>>>> effects were small. And even those small effects on mortality seem to
>>>>> have dissipated during the booster programme. That’s the conclusion of
>>>>> our new study, published in the European Economic Review.
>>>>>
>>>>> COVID-related deaths decreased significantly in most of Europe and the
>>>>> US from the middle of 2021. Although this reduction coincided with the
>>>>> rollout of COVID vaccines, it has proved surprisingly difficult to
>>>>> identify the extent to which vaccination contributed to the drop in deaths.
>>>>>
>>>>> Randomised controlled trials (the gold standard for testing new
>>>>> treatments) suggest COVID vaccination can provide significant protection
>>>>> against serious illness and death relative to unvaccinated people who
>>>>> have not previously been infected with COVID. But there are reasons the
>>>>> effect of vaccination on mortality may be lower when viewed outside of
>>>>> trials.
>>>>>
>>>>> Early in the programme, there were hopes that vaccination would also
>>>>> prove highly effective in preventing the spread of COVID but it has
>>>>> since become clear that vaccination provides only limited and short-term
>>>>> protection against infection and transmission.
>>>>>
>>>>> Don’t let yourself be misled. Understand issues with help from experts
>>>>> It is also well established that a previous infection provides
>>>>> protection both against reinfection and against serious illness and
>>>>> death in the event of reinfection that is at least as effective as
>>>>> vaccination. Having a previous infection significantly reduces the
>>>>> likelihood of being vaccinated meaning the vaccinated population will
>>>>> include a relatively high proportion of people without protection from
>>>>> prior infection. So even if vaccination provides protection at an
>>>>> individual level, we may still observe population-level mortality rates
>>>>> that are similar for vaccinated and unvaccinated groups.
>>>>>
>>>>> The effectiveness of vaccination programmes may also be limited by
>>>>> people’s behaviour. For example, there is evidence that vaccinated
>>>>> people who get infected are more likely to have mild symptoms and this
>>>>> may cause them to take fewer precautions than others against spreading
>>>>> infection. As a result, vaccination may sometimes be associated with
>>>>> more rather than less transmission.
>>>>>
>>>>> Taken together, even if vaccination reduces the risk on an individual
>>>>> basis, it does not necessarily follow that it will reduce deaths at a
>>>>> population level. Existing research reflects this ambiguity with some
>>>>> research finding very significant effects of vaccination on death while
>>>>> other findings conclude there was little or no effect at all.
>>>>>
>>>>> Our new study attempts to improve our knowledge about the effect of
>>>>> COVID vaccination programmes by estimating the effect of vaccination
>>>>> take up on deaths in care homes. This is a particularly important group
>>>>> to examine. Given that the vast majority of COVID-related deaths occur
>>>>> in the elderly, any effect on deaths is highly likely to be seen in care
>>>>> homes.
>>>>>
>>>>> An ampoule of AstraZeneca vaccine with a syringe.
>>>>> COVID vaccines reduced serious illness and deaths, but they did little
>>>>> to stop infection and transmission. Marc Bruxelle /Alamy Stock Photo
>>>>> Machine learning used to analyse the data
>>>>> We examined deaths from COVID in care homes across nearly 150 local
>>>>> authorities in England from the start of the vaccine rollout in December
>>>>> 2020 until after the second booster dose in summer 2022. We tested
>>>>> whether higher rates of vaccination of staff and elderly residents led
>>>>> to fewer deaths both in total and from COVID.
>>>>>
>>>>> One feature of our research is the use of machine learning (a type of
>>>>> artificial intelligence) to isolate the effect of vaccination from other
>>>>> factors that may also have affected mortality including levels of prior
>>>>> infection as well as demographic, economic and health differences among
>>>>> local authorities.
>>>>>
>>>>> Machine learning is particularly adept at separating out the effects of
>>>>> a high number of potential explanatory variables, providing much better
>>>>> evidence of when associations represent true causal relationships. In
>>>>> contrast to some other research, we also use a measure of vaccination
>>>>> that takes account of the fact that effectiveness wanes over time.
>>>>>
>>>>> We found that higher vaccination rates of residents (but not of staff)
>>>>> did indeed lead to fewer deaths, but the effect was relatively small.
>>>>> For example, an increase in the resident vaccination take-up rate of 10%
>>>>> in a local authority caused, on average, a reduction of 1% in the total
>>>>> care home mortality rate. That is equivalent to about 22 fewer deaths
>>>>> per week nationwide.
>>>>>
>>>>> Of course, any reduction in deaths is welcome. But vaccination does not
>>>>> appear to be the key factor in reducing care home deaths from COVID. We
>>>>> also found that the reduction in deaths was restricted to the initial
>>>>> vaccination rollout.
>>>>>
>>>>> From September 2021, when the booster vaccination programme started in
>>>>> England, higher vaccination rates of elderly residents do not seem to
>>>>> have led to any reduction in deaths. Based on these results, vaccination
>>>>> is unlikely to have been responsible for the sustained fall in
>>>>> COVID-related deaths.
>>>>>
>>>>> Why then did Europe and the US experience large reductions in COVID
>>>>> deaths since 2021, even during times when infection rates have soared?
>>>>>
>>>>> There are two explanations. The first is the growth of variants such as
>>>>> omicron that, although highly infectious, are less deadly than variants
>>>>> responsible for the early waves.
>>>>>
>>>>> Second, is the rise in the cumulative number of people who gained
>>>>> protection from having had previous infections.
>>>>>
>>>>> These explanations are consistent with the experience of places such as
>>>>> Hong Kong, New Zealand and Taiwan. All saw relatively low COVID
>>>>> infections and deaths in 2020, meaning only limited levels of natural
>>>>> immunity had been built up. All then experienced high mortality rates
>>>>> during 2022, well after most people in those places had been vaccinated.
>>>>>
>>>>> For example, the seven-day average mortality rate in Hong Kong reached
>>>>> 40 deaths per million in March 2022, a rate far above the highest peak
>>>>> seen in the US during the whole pandemic despite cumulative vaccination
>>>>> rates at that time being similar.
>>>>>
>>>>> Even though vaccination probably reduced care home deaths by a small
>>>>> amount in the early rollout period, there is little evidence that the
>>>>> booster programme had any significant effect on COVID-related deaths.
>>>>
>>>> In the interim, we are 100% prepared/protected in the "full armor of
>>>> GOD" (Ephesians 6:11) which we put on as soon as we use Apostle Paul's
>>>> secret (Philippians 4:12). Though masking is less protective, it helps
>>>> us avoid the appearance of doing the evil of spreading airborne
>>>> pathogens while there are people getting sick because of not being
>>>> 100% protected. It is written that we're to "abstain from **all**
>>>> appearance of doing evil" (1 Thessalonians 5:22 w/**emphasis**).
>>>>
>>>> Meanwhile, the only *perfect* (Matt 5:47-8 ) way to eradicate the
>>>> COVID-19 virus, thereby saving lives, in the UK & elsewhere is by
>>>> rapidly (i.e. use the "Rapid COVID-19 Test" ) finding out at any given
>>>> moment, including even while on-line, who among us are unwittingly
>>>> contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic) in order to
>>>> "convince it forward" (John 15:12) for them to call their doctor and
>>>> self-quarantine per their doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic.
>>>> Thus, we're hoping for the best while preparing for the worse-case
>>>> scenario of the Alpha lineage mutations and others like the Omicron,
>>>> Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota, Lambda, Mu & Delta lineage mutations
>>>> combining via slip-RNA-replication to form hybrids like "Deltamicron"
>>>> that may render current COVID vaccines/monoclonals/medicines/pills no
>>>> longer effective.
>>>>
>>>> Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry (
>>>> https://groups.google.com/g/sci.med.cardiology/c/6ZoE95d-VKc/m/14vVZoyOBgAJ
>>>> ) and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
>>>>
>>>> So how are you ?
>>>
>>> I am wonderfully hungry!
>>
>> While wonderfully hungry in the Holy Spirit, Who causes (Deuteronomy
>> 8:3) us to hunger, I note that you, Michael, are rapture ready (Luke
>> 17:37 means no COVID just as eagles circling over their food have no
>> COVID) and pray (2 Chronicles 7:14) that our Everlasting (Isaiah 9:6)
>> Father in Heaven continues to give us "much more" (Luke 11:13) Holy
>> Spirit (Galatians 5:22-23) so that we'd have much more of His Help to
>> always say/write that we're "wonderfully hungry" in **all** ways
>> including especially caring to "convince it forward" (John 15:12) with
>> all glory (Psalm112:1) to GOD (aka HaShem, Elohim, Abba, DEO), in
>> the name (John 16:23) of LORD Jesus Christ of Nazareth. Amen.
>>
>> Laus DEO !
>
> Thank you for noting that I have no COVID.

Just please do likewise as our LORD Jesus & I have done for you,
Michael, and http://go.WDJW.net/ConvinceItForward (John 15:12) to be
https://bit.ly/Wonderfully_Hungrier more blessed by GOD right now
(Luke 6:21a).