HeartDoc Andrew wrote:
> Michael Ejercito wrote:
>> HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
>>> Michael Ejercito wrote:
>>>
>>>> https://www.reddit.com/r/LockdownSkepticism/comments/1g7m74h/vaccinating_care_home_residents_reduced_deaths/
>>>>
>>>> Vaccinating care home residents reduced deaths, but the effect was small
>>>> – new study
>>>> Published: October 18, 2024 8:42am EDT
>>>> Authors
>>>> David Paton
>>>> Chair of Industrial Economics, Nottingham University Business School,
>>>> University of Nottingham
>>>>
>>>> Sourafel Girma
>>>> Professor of Industrial Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences,
>>>> University of Nottingham
>>>>
>>>> Disclosure statement
>>>> David Paton is a member of HART (Health Advisory and Recovery Team).
>>>>
>>>> Sourafel Girma does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive
>>>> funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this
>>>> article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their
>>>> academic appointment.
>>>>
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>>>> Conversation UK.
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>>>> Vaccinating older people probably did avert some deaths in 2021, but the
>>>> effects were small. And even those small effects on mortality seem to
>>>> have dissipated during the booster programme. That’s the conclusion of
>>>> our new study, published in the European Economic Review.
>>>>
>>>> COVID-related deaths decreased significantly in most of Europe and the
>>>> US from the middle of 2021. Although this reduction coincided with the
>>>> rollout of COVID vaccines, it has proved surprisingly difficult to
>>>> identify the extent to which vaccination contributed to the drop in deaths.
>>>>
>>>> Randomised controlled trials (the gold standard for testing new
>>>> treatments) suggest COVID vaccination can provide significant protection
>>>> against serious illness and death relative to unvaccinated people who
>>>> have not previously been infected with COVID. But there are reasons the
>>>> effect of vaccination on mortality may be lower when viewed outside of
>>>> trials.
>>>>
>>>> Early in the programme, there were hopes that vaccination would also
>>>> prove highly effective in preventing the spread of COVID but it has
>>>> since become clear that vaccination provides only limited and short-term
>>>> protection against infection and transmission.
>>>>
>>>> Don’t let yourself be misled. Understand issues with help from experts
>>>> It is also well established that a previous infection provides
>>>> protection both against reinfection and against serious illness and
>>>> death in the event of reinfection that is at least as effective as
>>>> vaccination. Having a previous infection significantly reduces the
>>>> likelihood of being vaccinated meaning the vaccinated population will
>>>> include a relatively high proportion of people without protection from
>>>> prior infection. So even if vaccination provides protection at an
>>>> individual level, we may still observe population-level mortality rates
>>>> that are similar for vaccinated and unvaccinated groups.
>>>>
>>>> The effectiveness of vaccination programmes may also be limited by
>>>> people’s behaviour. For example, there is evidence that vaccinated
>>>> people who get infected are more likely to have mild symptoms and this
>>>> may cause them to take fewer precautions than others against spreading
>>>> infection. As a result, vaccination may sometimes be associated with
>>>> more rather than less transmission.
>>>>
>>>> Taken together, even if vaccination reduces the risk on an individual
>>>> basis, it does not necessarily follow that it will reduce deaths at a
>>>> population level. Existing research reflects this ambiguity with some
>>>> research finding very significant effects of vaccination on death while
>>>> other findings conclude there was little or no effect at all.
>>>>
>>>> Our new study attempts to improve our knowledge about the effect of
>>>> COVID vaccination programmes by estimating the effect of vaccination
>>>> take up on deaths in care homes. This is a particularly important group
>>>> to examine. Given that the vast majority of COVID-related deaths occur
>>>> in the elderly, any effect on deaths is highly likely to be seen in care
>>>> homes.
>>>>
>>>> An ampoule of AstraZeneca vaccine with a syringe.
>>>> COVID vaccines reduced serious illness and deaths, but they did little
>>>> to stop infection and transmission. Marc Bruxelle /Alamy Stock Photo
>>>> Machine learning used to analyse the data
>>>> We examined deaths from COVID in care homes across nearly 150 local
>>>> authorities in England from the start of the vaccine rollout in December
>>>> 2020 until after the second booster dose in summer 2022. We tested
>>>> whether higher rates of vaccination of staff and elderly residents led
>>>> to fewer deaths both in total and from COVID.
>>>>
>>>> One feature of our research is the use of machine learning (a type of
>>>> artificial intelligence) to isolate the effect of vaccination from other
>>>> factors that may also have affected mortality including levels of prior
>>>> infection as well as demographic, economic and health differences among
>>>> local authorities.
>>>>
>>>> Machine learning is particularly adept at separating out the effects of
>>>> a high number of potential explanatory variables, providing much better
>>>> evidence of when associations represent true causal relationships. In
>>>> contrast to some other research, we also use a measure of vaccination
>>>> that takes account of the fact that effectiveness wanes over time.
>>>>
>>>> We found that higher vaccination rates of residents (but not of staff)
>>>> did indeed lead to fewer deaths, but the effect was relatively small.
>>>> For example, an increase in the resident vaccination take-up rate of 10%
>>>> in a local authority caused, on average, a reduction of 1% in the total
>>>> care home mortality rate. That is equivalent to about 22 fewer deaths
>>>> per week nationwide.
>>>>
>>>> Of course, any reduction in deaths is welcome. But vaccination does not
>>>> appear to be the key factor in reducing care home deaths from COVID. We
>>>> also found that the reduction in deaths was restricted to the initial
>>>> vaccination rollout.
>>>>
>>>> From September 2021, when the booster vaccination programme started in
>>>> England, higher vaccination rates of elderly residents do not seem to
>>>> have led to any reduction in deaths. Based on these results, vaccination
>>>> is unlikely to have been responsible for the sustained fall in
>>>> COVID-related deaths.
>>>>
>>>> Why then did Europe and the US experience large reductions in COVID
>>>> deaths since 2021, even during times when infection rates have soared?
>>>>
>>>> There are two explanations. The first is the growth of variants such as
>>>> omicron that, although highly infectious, are less deadly than variants
>>>> responsible for the early waves.
>>>>
>>>> Second, is the rise in the cumulative number of people who gained
>>>> protection from having had previous infections.
>>>>
>>>> These explanations are consistent with the experience of places such as
>>>> Hong Kong, New Zealand and Taiwan. All saw relatively low COVID
>>>> infections and deaths in 2020, meaning only limited levels of natural
>>>> immunity had been built up. All then experienced high mortality rates
>>>> during 2022, well after most people in those places had been vaccinated.
>>>>
>>>> For example, the seven-day average mortality rate in Hong Kong reached
>>>> 40 deaths per million in March 2022, a rate far above the highest peak
>>>> seen in the US during the whole pandemic despite cumulative vaccination
>>>> rates at that time being similar.
>>>>
>>>> Even though vaccination probably reduced care home deaths by a small
>>>> amount in the early rollout period, there is little evidence that the
>>>> booster programme had any significant effect on COVID-related deaths.
>>>
>>> In the interim, we are 100% prepared/protected in the "full armor of
>>> GOD" (Ephesians 6:11) which we put on as soon as we use Apostle Paul's
>>> secret (Philippians 4:12). Though masking is less protective, it helps
>>> us avoid the appearance of doing the evil of spreading airborne
>>> pathogens while there are people getting sick because of not being
>>> 100% protected. It is written that we're to "abstain from **all**
>>> appearance of doing evil" (1 Thessalonians 5:22 w/**emphasis**).
>>>
>>> Meanwhile, the only *perfect* (Matt 5:47-8 ) way to eradicate the
>>> COVID-19 virus, thereby saving lives, in the UK & elsewhere is by
>>> rapidly (i.e. use the "Rapid COVID-19 Test" ) finding out at any given
>>> moment, including even while on-line, who among us are unwittingly
>>> contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic) in order to
>>> "convince it forward" (John 15:12) for them to call their doctor and
>>> self-quarantine per their doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic.
>>> Thus, we're hoping for the best while preparing for the worse-case
>>> scenario of the Alpha lineage mutations and others like the Omicron,
>>> Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota, Lambda, Mu & Delta lineage mutations
>>> combining via slip-RNA-replication to form hybrids like "Deltamicron"
>>> that may render current COVID vaccines/monoclonals/medicines/pills no
>>> longer effective.
>>>
>>> Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry (
>>> https://groups.google.com/g/sci.med.cardiology/c/6ZoE95d-VKc/m/14vVZoyOBgAJ
>>> ) and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
>>>
>>> So how are you ?
>>
>> I am wonderfully hungry!
>
> While wonderfully hungry in the Holy Spirit, Who causes (Deuteronomy
> 8:3) us to hunger, I note that you, Michael, are rapture ready (Luke
> 17:37 means no COVID just as eagles circling over their food have no
> COVID) and pray (2 Chronicles 7:14) that our Everlasting (Isaiah 9:6)
> Father in Heaven continues to give us "much more" (Luke 11:13) Holy
> Spirit (Galatians 5:22-23) so that we'd have much more of His Help to
> always say/write that we're "wonderfully hungry" in **all** ways
> including especially caring to "convince it forward" (John 15:12) with
> all glory (Psalm112:1) to GOD (aka HaShem, Elohim, Abba, DEO), in
> the name (John 16:23) of LORD Jesus Christ of Nazareth. Amen.
>
> Laus DEO !
>
Thank you for noting that I have no COVID.

Michael