Michael Ejercito wrote:
> HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
>> Michael Ejercito wrote:
>>
>>> https://www.reddit.com/r/LockdownSkepticism/comments/1g7m74h/vaccinating_care_home_residents_reduced_deaths/
>>>
>>> Vaccinating care home residents reduced deaths, but the effect was small
>>> – new study
>>> Published: October 18, 2024 8:42am EDT
>>> Authors
>>> David Paton
>>> Chair of Industrial Economics, Nottingham University Business School,
>>> University of Nottingham
>>>
>>> Sourafel Girma
>>> Professor of Industrial Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences,
>>> University of Nottingham
>>>
>>> Disclosure statement
>>> David Paton is a member of HART (Health Advisory and Recovery Team).
>>>
>>> Sourafel Girma does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive
>>> funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this
>>> article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their
>>> academic appointment.
>>>
>>> Partners
>>> University of Nottingham
>>>
>>> University of Nottingham provides funding as a founding partner of The
>>> Conversation UK.
>>>
>>> View all partners
>>>
>>> CC BY ND
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>>> Vaccinating older people probably did avert some deaths in 2021, but the
>>> effects were small. And even those small effects on mortality seem to
>>> have dissipated during the booster programme. That’s the conclusion of
>>> our new study, published in the European Economic Review.
>>>
>>> COVID-related deaths decreased significantly in most of Europe and the
>>> US from the middle of 2021. Although this reduction coincided with the
>>> rollout of COVID vaccines, it has proved surprisingly difficult to
>>> identify the extent to which vaccination contributed to the drop in deaths.
>>>
>>> Randomised controlled trials (the gold standard for testing new
>>> treatments) suggest COVID vaccination can provide significant protection
>>> against serious illness and death relative to unvaccinated people who
>>> have not previously been infected with COVID. But there are reasons the
>>> effect of vaccination on mortality may be lower when viewed outside of
>>> trials.
>>>
>>> Early in the programme, there were hopes that vaccination would also
>>> prove highly effective in preventing the spread of COVID but it has
>>> since become clear that vaccination provides only limited and short-term
>>> protection against infection and transmission.
>>>
>>> Don’t let yourself be misled. Understand issues with help from experts
>>> It is also well established that a previous infection provides
>>> protection both against reinfection and against serious illness and
>>> death in the event of reinfection that is at least as effective as
>>> vaccination. Having a previous infection significantly reduces the
>>> likelihood of being vaccinated meaning the vaccinated population will
>>> include a relatively high proportion of people without protection from
>>> prior infection. So even if vaccination provides protection at an
>>> individual level, we may still observe population-level mortality rates
>>> that are similar for vaccinated and unvaccinated groups.
>>>
>>> The effectiveness of vaccination programmes may also be limited by
>>> people’s behaviour. For example, there is evidence that vaccinated
>>> people who get infected are more likely to have mild symptoms and this
>>> may cause them to take fewer precautions than others against spreading
>>> infection. As a result, vaccination may sometimes be associated with
>>> more rather than less transmission.
>>>
>>> Taken together, even if vaccination reduces the risk on an individual
>>> basis, it does not necessarily follow that it will reduce deaths at a
>>> population level. Existing research reflects this ambiguity with some
>>> research finding very significant effects of vaccination on death while
>>> other findings conclude there was little or no effect at all.
>>>
>>> Our new study attempts to improve our knowledge about the effect of
>>> COVID vaccination programmes by estimating the effect of vaccination
>>> take up on deaths in care homes. This is a particularly important group
>>> to examine. Given that the vast majority of COVID-related deaths occur
>>> in the elderly, any effect on deaths is highly likely to be seen in care
>>> homes.
>>>
>>> An ampoule of AstraZeneca vaccine with a syringe.
>>> COVID vaccines reduced serious illness and deaths, but they did little
>>> to stop infection and transmission. Marc Bruxelle /Alamy Stock Photo
>>> Machine learning used to analyse the data
>>> We examined deaths from COVID in care homes across nearly 150 local
>>> authorities in England from the start of the vaccine rollout in December
>>> 2020 until after the second booster dose in summer 2022. We tested
>>> whether higher rates of vaccination of staff and elderly residents led
>>> to fewer deaths both in total and from COVID.
>>>
>>> One feature of our research is the use of machine learning (a type of
>>> artificial intelligence) to isolate the effect of vaccination from other
>>> factors that may also have affected mortality including levels of prior
>>> infection as well as demographic, economic and health differences among
>>> local authorities.
>>>
>>> Machine learning is particularly adept at separating out the effects of
>>> a high number of potential explanatory variables, providing much better
>>> evidence of when associations represent true causal relationships. In
>>> contrast to some other research, we also use a measure of vaccination
>>> that takes account of the fact that effectiveness wanes over time.
>>>
>>> We found that higher vaccination rates of residents (but not of staff)
>>> did indeed lead to fewer deaths, but the effect was relatively small.
>>> For example, an increase in the resident vaccination take-up rate of 10%
>>> in a local authority caused, on average, a reduction of 1% in the total
>>> care home mortality rate. That is equivalent to about 22 fewer deaths
>>> per week nationwide.
>>>
>>> Of course, any reduction in deaths is welcome. But vaccination does not
>>> appear to be the key factor in reducing care home deaths from COVID. We
>>> also found that the reduction in deaths was restricted to the initial
>>> vaccination rollout.
>>>
>>> From September 2021, when the booster vaccination programme started in
>>> England, higher vaccination rates of elderly residents do not seem to
>>> have led to any reduction in deaths. Based on these results, vaccination
>>> is unlikely to have been responsible for the sustained fall in
>>> COVID-related deaths.
>>>
>>> Why then did Europe and the US experience large reductions in COVID
>>> deaths since 2021, even during times when infection rates have soared?
>>>
>>> There are two explanations. The first is the growth of variants such as
>>> omicron that, although highly infectious, are less deadly than variants
>>> responsible for the early waves.
>>>
>>> Second, is the rise in the cumulative number of people who gained
>>> protection from having had previous infections.
>>>
>>> These explanations are consistent with the experience of places such as
>>> Hong Kong, New Zealand and Taiwan. All saw relatively low COVID
>>> infections and deaths in 2020, meaning only limited levels of natural
>>> immunity had been built up. All then experienced high mortality rates
>>> during 2022, well after most people in those places had been vaccinated.
>>>
>>> For example, the seven-day average mortality rate in Hong Kong reached
>>> 40 deaths per million in March 2022, a rate far above the highest peak
>>> seen in the US during the whole pandemic despite cumulative vaccination
>>> rates at that time being similar.
>>>
>>> Even though vaccination probably reduced care home deaths by a small
>>> amount in the early rollout period, there is little evidence that the
>>> booster programme had any significant effect on COVID-related deaths.
>>
>> In the interim, we are 100% prepared/protected in the "full armor of
>> GOD" (Ephesians 6:11) which we put on as soon as we use Apostle Paul's
>> secret (Philippians 4:12). Though masking is less protective, it helps
>> us avoid the appearance of doing the evil of spreading airborne
>> pathogens while there are people getting sick because of not being
>> 100% protected. It is written that we're to "abstain from **all**
>> appearance of doing evil" (1 Thessalonians 5:22 w/**emphasis**).
>>
>> Meanwhile, the only *perfect* (Matt 5:47-8 ) way to eradicate the
>> COVID-19 virus, thereby saving lives, in the UK & elsewhere is by
>> rapidly (i.e. use the "Rapid COVID-19 Test" ) finding out at any given
>> moment, including even while on-line, who among us are unwittingly
>> contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic) in order to
>> "convince it forward" (John 15:12) for them to call their doctor and
>> self-quarantine per their doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic.
>> Thus, we're hoping for the best while preparing for the worse-case
>> scenario of the Alpha lineage mutations and others like the Omicron,
>> Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota, Lambda, Mu & Delta lineage mutations
>> combining via slip-RNA-replication to form hybrids like "Deltamicron"
>> that may render current COVID vaccines/monoclonals/medicines/pills no
>> longer effective.
>>
>> Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry (
>> https://groups.google.com/g/sci.med.cardiology/c/6ZoE95d-VKc/m/14vVZoyOBgAJ
>> ) and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
>>
>> So how are you ?
>
> I am wonderfully hungry!

While wonderfully hungry in the Holy Spirit, Who causes (Deuteronomy
8:3) us to hunger, I note that you, Michael, are rapture ready (Luke
17:37 means no COVID just as eagles circling over their food have no
COVID) and pray (2 Chronicles 7:14) that our Everlasting (Isaiah 9:6)
Father in Heaven continues to give us "much more" (Luke 11:13) Holy
Spirit (Galatians 5:22-23) so that we'd have much more of His Help to
always say/write that we're "wonderfully hungry" in **all** ways
including especially caring to "convince it forward" (John 15:12) with
all glory (Psalm112:1) to GOD (aka HaShem, Elohim, Abba, DEO), in
the name (John 16:23) of LORD Jesus Christ of Nazareth. Amen.

Laus DEO !

Source:
https://narkive.com/4t5tGRDy.7

Positive control on USENET:
https://groups.google.com/g/sci.med.cardiology/c/7ixdk7t6Bk8/m/xpbS2z7QAAAJ

Suggested further reading:
https://groups.google.com/g/sci.med.cardiology/c/5EWtT4CwCOg/m/QjNF57xRBAAJ

Shorter link:
http://bit.ly/StatCOVID-19Test

Be hungrier, which really is wonderfully healthier especially for
diabetics and other heart disease patients:

http://bit.ly/HeartDocAndrew touts hunger (Luke 6:21a) with all glory
( http://bit.ly/Psalm112_1 ) to GOD, Who causes us to hunger
(Deuteronomy 8:3) when He blesses us right now (Luke 6:21a) thereby
removing the http://WDJW.great-site.net/VAT from around the heart

....because we mindfully choose to openly care with our heart,

HeartDoc Andrew <><
--
Andrew B. Chung, MD/PhD
Cardiologist with an http://bit.ly/EternalMedicalLicense
2024 & upwards non-partisan candidate for U.S. President:
http://WonderfullyHungry.org
and author of the 2PD-OMER Approach:
http://bit.ly/HeartDocAndrewCare