CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Tuesday that if the 2024
presidential election polls are as off as they were in 2020, former
President Trump "wins in a blowout."

Enten broke down current swing state polling numbers between Vice
President Kamala Harris and Trump, noting that they show a race "too
close to call." However, he pointed out that polls have been off
significantly in recent elections, and if that�s the case this time,
Trump could win by a landslide.

"But let�s say we have a polling miss like we had in 2020," Enten told
CNN anchor John Berman.

"What happens then? Well, then Donald Trump wins the election in a
blowout with 312 electoral votes because he carries all these Great
Lake battleground states plus Nevada, plus the other states he was
leading in � Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia," he said.

The reporter began by displaying the close race numbers between Trump
and Harris in the seven battleground states. As his aggregate polls
showed, Harris is up by one point in Nevada and Pennsylvania, and up by
two in Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump, on the other hand, is up by one
in North Carolina and Georgia, and two points up in Arizona.

Enten reminded viewers that these point differences are within the
polling margin of error according to FiveThirtyEight, so currently,
it�s impossible to know who is winning.

He mentioned that on average since 1972 � provided that presidential
candidates are polling within ten points of one another �� swing state
polls have an error rate of 3.4 points, so there is room for the actual
race to swing in Harris� or Trump�s favor when they�re within one or
two points of each other.

He further noted that in 5% of cases, swing state polling can be off by
9.4 points, making things even less certain for people looking at the
polls right now.

"So, the bottom line is, the state polling averages tell us- what it
tells us is it�s just a race that is too close to call. Maybe one
candidate has an advantage over the other one. But the bottom line is,
it is way too close to call and it will remain so," he said.

Still, Enten offered multiple hypothetical situations, the first one
being what the election results would look like if the current swing
state polling is 100% accurate. "If the polls are exactly right, Kamala
Harris gets 276 electoral votes to Donald Trump�s 262 because she
carries those Great Lake battleground states despite losing North
Carolina, Georgia and Arizona."

He then followed up by showing what would happen if polling errors
matched those found in the 2020 election. According to Vanderbilt
University, polls overstated President Biden�s lead over Trump by 3.9
percentage in the two weeks prior to election day, calling it the
"largest polling error since 1980 when support for Democratic nominee
Jimmy Carter was overestimated by 6 percentage points."

Enten argued if today�s polls had the similar errors of the last cycle,
Trump could walk away with 312 electoral college votes to Harris� 226.

Conversely, Enten discussed what would happen if polling errors
predicting a red wave in the 2022 midterm elections appeared on Nov. 5,
2024.

"What happens if we have a polling miss like 2022?" he asked. "Well, in
that particular case, now, the winner has flipped again. And Kamala
Harris wins in a blowout with 319 electoral votes because she retakes
those Great Lake battleground states, carries North Carolina, Georgia
and Arizona."

https://www.foxnews.com/media/2024-polling-errors-mirror-those-2020-
election-trump-wins-blowout-cnn-data-guru-says

On 2024-10-09, useapen <yourdime@outlook.com> wrote:
> CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Tuesday that if the 2024
> presidential election polls are as off as they were in 2020, former
> President Trump "wins in a blowout."
>
> Enten broke down current swing state polling numbers between Vice
> President Kamala Harris and Trump, noting that they show a race "too
> close to call." However, he pointed out that polls have been off
> significantly in recent elections, and if that’s the case this time,
> Trump could win by a landslide.
>
> "But let’s say we have a polling miss like we had in 2020," Enten told
> CNN anchor John Berman.
>
> "What happens then? Well, then Donald Trump wins the election in a
> blowout with 312 electoral votes because he carries all these Great
> Lake battleground states plus Nevada, plus the other states he was
> leading in — Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia," he said.
>
> The reporter began by displaying the close race numbers between Trump
> and Harris in the seven battleground states. As his aggregate polls
> showed, Harris is up by one point in Nevada and Pennsylvania, and up by
> two in Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump, on the other hand, is up by one
> in North Carolina and Georgia, and two points up in Arizona.
>
> Enten reminded viewers that these point differences are within the
> polling margin of error according to FiveThirtyEight, so currently,
> it’s impossible to know who is winning.
>
> He mentioned that on average since 1972 – provided that presidential
> candidates are polling within ten points of one another ­– swing state
> polls have an error rate of 3.4 points, so there is room for the actual
> race to swing in Harris’ or Trump’s favor when they’re within one or
> two points of each other.
>
> He further noted that in 5% of cases, swing state polling can be off by
> 9.4 points, making things even less certain for people looking at the
> polls right now.
>
> "So, the bottom line is, the state polling averages tell us- what it
> tells us is it’s just a race that is too close to call. Maybe one
> candidate has an advantage over the other one. But the bottom line is,
> it is way too close to call and it will remain so," he said.
>
> Still, Enten offered multiple hypothetical situations, the first one
> being what the election results would look like if the current swing
> state polling is 100% accurate. "If the polls are exactly right, Kamala
> Harris gets 276 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 262 because she
> carries those Great Lake battleground states despite losing North
> Carolina, Georgia and Arizona."
>
> He then followed up by showing what would happen if polling errors
> matched those found in the 2020 election. According to Vanderbilt
> University, polls overstated President Biden’s lead over Trump by 3.9
> percentage in the two weeks prior to election day, calling it the
> "largest polling error since 1980 when support for Democratic nominee
> Jimmy Carter was overestimated by 6 percentage points."
>
> Enten argued if today’s polls had the similar errors of the last cycle,
> Trump could walk away with 312 electoral college votes to Harris’ 226.
>
> Conversely, Enten discussed what would happen if polling errors
> predicting a red wave in the 2022 midterm elections appeared on Nov. 5,
> 2024.
>
> "What happens if we have a polling miss like 2022?" he asked. "Well, in
> that particular case, now, the winner has flipped again. And Kamala
> Harris wins in a blowout with 319 electoral votes because she retakes
> those Great Lake battleground states, carries North Carolina, Georgia
> and Arizona."
>
> https://www.foxnews.com/media/2024-polling-errors-mirror-those-2020-
> election-trump-wins-blowout-cnn-data-guru-says

After the 2016 election which had Hillary in the 90th percentile to win, even
days before election day, I no longer trust polling.
I can't fathom how the current polls have Harris and Trump in a virtual tie.
After 4 years of pure hell on earth how is it possible that people would vote
for another 4 years?
And I have yet to encounter a plausible answer to that question.
--
pothead
Kamala Harris Word Salad Special Of The Day
Served Complete With Venn Diagram Dressing

pothead wrote:

> After 4 years of pure hell on earth how is it possible that people
> would vote for another 4 years?

After 4 years of pure hell on earth under Trump how is it possible that
people would vote for another 4 years? Drink bleach indeed.

On 09 Oct 2024, "David Jones" <dajhawkxx@nowherel.com> posted some
news:ve5vaj$2litv$1@dont-email.me:

> pothead wrote:
>
>> After 4 years of pure hell on earth how is it possible that people
>> would vote for another 4 years?
>
> After 4 years of pure hell on earth under Trump how is it possible that
> people would vote for another 4 years? Drink bleach indeed.

4 years of making money on investments again? Retirement savings increase
instead of losing 30% of value because of Biden incompetency? Blacks
being put to work and those who refuse being held accountable for crimes
they commit?

Trump has my vote.

- Newsgroups: shortened to three.

On Wed, 9 Oct 2024 20:03:34 -0000 (UTC), B Woodward
<bwoodward@trump.com> wrote:

>On 09 Oct 2024, "David Jones" <dajhawkxx@nowherel.com> posted some
>news:ve5vaj$2litv$1@dont-email.me:
>
>> pothead wrote:
>>
>>> After 4 years of pure hell on earth how is it possible that people
>>> would vote for another 4 years?
>>
>> After 4 years of pure hell on earth under Trump how is it possible that
>> people would vote for another 4 years? Drink bleach indeed.
>
>4 years of making money on investments again? Retirement savings increase
>instead of losing 30% of value because of Biden incompetency?

The stock market keeps hitting all-time highs. Despite drawing from
it for years, my retirement fund is also higher than ever. Covid's
supply chain inflation seems to be whipped, and the economic
recovery of the US after Covid has been (arguably) the best in
the world. Your investments must be as uninformed as your politics.

You must be getting your 'news' from Trump, whom careful people
stopped trusting years ago. Sadly, Fox et al. seem committed to
preserving their Trumpish audience, so they offer few corrections.

Economists are not really pleased with the deficit projections for
what Harris has supported, but they are appalled by Trump's
plans -- twice the deficit plus rampant inflation, before factoring
in the disruption if he can dictate expulsion of immigrants.

> Blacks
>being put to work and those who refuse being held accountable for crimes
>they commit?

I can't make any direct sense of that sentence, but I assume it
points to memes in the racist community.

>
>Trump has my vote.

--
Rich Ulrich