Former President Donald Trump has extended his lead in the Daily Mail's
election model, which now gives him his highest probability yet of
victory over Kamala Harris in November's election.

A favorable poll in the critical swing state of Michigan, putting him
one-point up over his Democratic opponent, helped nudge him to an
almost 18-point lead, two points more than last week.

But plenty can change in the final weeks of campaigning.

And with Trump on a 58.8 percent of winning to Harris' 41.1 the result
remains very much in tossup territory.

However, the latest polling data now suggest that Trump is on track to
win 302 electoral college votes to Harris' 236, the most decisive lead
yet.

Callum Hunter, data scientist at J.L. Partners who crunches the
numbers, said in his latest briefing note: 'Things continue to move
against Harris�Trump's win probability has increased by another two
points since last week.

'The win probability gap has now widened to nearly 18 points.

'The fact that Michigan has moved into the Trump camp is significant
and a major blow to the Harris campaign.

'New polls this week may temper this increasingly good news for Trump.'

The model weighs all the latest polling data, along with 80 years of
election results and economic statistics to deliver each candidate's
chances of winning in the electoral college.

Overall, it predicts that Harris has a much better chance of winning
the popular vote (as Democrats have done in seven of the last eight
elections).

At the same time, a string of recent polls have shown critical swing
states edging towards the former president.

The most crucial of those may be a Mitchell Research and Communications
poll for Michigan News Source, which showed Trump overtaking Harris
in a head-to-head match-up by one point.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13938305/donald-trump-kamala-
harris-michigan-poll.html