On 16 Oct 2024, John Smyth <smythlejon2@hotmail.com> posted some
news:dnrvgjt6kuhilqp2odtq073g8p719ug0h3@4ax.com:

> 'FBI Quietly Revises Violent Crime Stats'
>
><https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4271333/posts>
>
><https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2024/10/16/stealth_edi
>t_fbi_quietly_revises_violent_crime_stats_1065396.html>
>
> 'When the FBI originally released the “final” crime data for 2022
> in September 2023, it reported that the nation’s violent crime rate
> fell by 2.1%. This quickly became, and remains, a Democratic Party
> talking point to counter Donald Trump’s claims of soaring crime.
>
> But the FBI has quietly revised those numbers, releasing new data that
> shows violent crime increased in 2022 by 4.5%. The new data includes
> thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.
>
> The Bureau – which has been at the center of partisan storms –
> made no mention of these revisions in its September 2024 press
> release.
>
> RCI discovered the change through a cryptic reference on the FBI
> website that states: “The 2022 violent crime rate has been updated
> for inclusion in CIUS, 2023.” But there is no mention that the
> numbers increased. One only sees the change by downloading the FBI’s
> new crime data and comparing it to the file released last year.
>
> After the FBI released its new crime data in September, a USA Today
> headline read: “Violent crime dropped for third straight year in
> 2023, including murder and rape.”
>
> It’s been over three weeks since the FBI released the revised data.
> The Bureau’s lack of acknowledgment or explanation about the
> significant change concerns researchers.
>
> “I have checked the data on total violent crime from 2004 to
> 2022,” Carl Moody, a professor at the College of William & Mary who
> specializes in studying crime, told RealClearInvestigations. “There
> were no revisions from 2004 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2020, there were
> small changes of less than one percentage point. The huge changes in
> 2021 and 2022, especially without an explanation, make it difficult to
> trust the FBI data.”
>
> “It is up to the FBI to explain what they have done, and they
> haven’t explained these large changes,” Dr. Thomas Marvell, the
> president of Justec Research, a criminal justice statistical research
> organization, told RCI.
>
> The FBI did not respond to RCI’s repeated requests for comment.
>
> Extensive Revisions in Violent Crime Stats
>
> The actual changes in crimes are extensive. The updated data for 2022
> report that there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021. There
> were an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and
> 37,091 aggravated assaults. The question naturally arises: should the
> FBI’s 2023 numbers be believed?
>
> RCI
> FBI Revised Crime Rates
> RCI
> Without the increase, the drop in violent crime in 2023 would have
> been less than half as large – only 1.6% instead of the reported
> drop of 3.5%.
>
> The FBI isn’t the only government agency that has been revising its
> data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics massively overestimated the
> number of jobs created during the year that ended in March by 818,000
> people.
>
> The FBI’s crime stats revisions reveal how much guesswork is
> involved in even the “final” numbers often seized on by
> politicians. The FBI doesn’t simply count reported crimes. Instead,
> it offers estimates by extrapolating data from police departments that
> report only partial-year data. The Bureau also makes estimates for
> cities that report no data. The FBI’s method of generating these
> estimates changes over time, and it affects the figures they report.
>
> “The [FBI’s] processes, such as how it tries to ‘estimate’
> unreported figures, has long been a black box, even to the Bureau of
> Justice Statistics – the Department of Justice’s actual
> statistical agency,” says Jeffrey Anderson, who headed the DOJ’s
> Bureau of Justice Statistics from 2017 to 2021.
>
> Anderson said when he headed the Bureau of Justice Statistics, “We
> definitely would have highlighted in a press release or a report the
> 6.6% change recorded for 2022, which moved the numbers from a drop to
> a rise in violent crime.”
>
> Many Crimes Are Unreported
>
> Another problem with FBI crime data is its reliance on reported
> crimes. Most crimes go unreported, with only about 45% of violent
> crimes and 30% of property crimes brought to the police’s attention,
> according to the National Crime Victimization Survey. Since the FBI
> only tracks reported incidents and this gap is so large, researchers
> argue that when the media discusses crime rates based on FBI data,
> they should clarify that it reflects “reported” crime, not give
> the impression that total crime is changing.
>
> Nonreporting of crime doesn’t affect all crimes equally.
> Nonreporting of murder and motor vehicle theft is relatively rare. In
> murder cases, victims can’t be overlooked, and for auto theft,
> insurance claims require police reports. However, it’s difficult to
> fully trust even these numbers because the FBI underreported 1,699
> murders and 54,216 motor vehicle thefts in 2022, casting doubt on the
> reliability of the data.
>
> Although recent attention has focused on the decline in murder rates,
> even with the revised numbers, the 16.2% drop from 2020 to 2023 still
> leaves murder rates 9.6% higher than pre-COVID levels.
>
> A half-century ago, the DOJ provided a total crime measure, including
> both reported and unreported crime. The results of the department’s
> Bureau of Justice Statistics 2023 National Crime Victimization Survey,
> released in mid-September, tell a very different story from the FBI
> data.
>
> The NCVS interviews 240,000 people each year about their personal
> experiences.
>
> Instead of the FBI’s 3.5% drop in the reported violent crime rate in
> 2023, the NCVS found a 4.1% increase in the reported violent crime
> rate. Even with the revised FBI numbers, in 2022, the FBI’s 4.5%
> increase pales in comparison to the NCVS’s 29.1% increase.
>
> RCI
> FBI - Change in Reported Crime Rates
> RCI
> Over the past few years, the number of police officers has declined
> because of cuts in budgets and many retirements. One result is that
> police departments nationwide – from Charlottesville and Henrico
> County, Va., to Chicago, Ill. and Olympia, Wash. – are no longer
> responding to calls unless the perpetrator is still there actively
> committing the crime. Instead of police coming out to investigate and
> take a report, residents in those jurisdictions can still go to the
> police station and wait in line to get a police report filled out. In
> addition, despite the widespread belief that calling 911 is enough to
> report a crime, the FBI officially doesn’t tally 911 calls. It only
> counts crimes when police make out an official report.
>
> Other Data Show Sharper Rises in Crime
>
> While the FBI claims that serious violent crime has fallen by 5.8%
> since Biden took office, the NCVS numbers show that total violent
> crime has risen by 55.4%. Rapes are up by 42%, robbery by 63%, and
> aggravated assault by 55% during Biden’s term. Since the NCVS
> started, the largest previous increase over three years was 27% in
> 2006, so the increase under Biden was slightly more than twice as
> large.
>
> The increases shown by the NCVS during the Biden-Harris administration
> are by far the largest percentage increases over any three years,
> slightly more than doubling the previous record.
>
> Comparing 2023 rates with 2019 pre-COVID violent crime rates, the
> FBI’s new 2023 data show virtually no improvement – just a 0.2%
> drop – while the NCVS shows a 19% increase over that period. But the
> news media didn’t cover the crime survey when it was released last
> month.
>
> “With the media using the 2022 FBI data to tell us for a year that
> crime was falling, it is disappointing that there are no news articles
> correcting that misimpression,” Moody told RCI. “We will have to
> see whether the FBI later also revises the 2023 numbers.”
>
> At the beginning of this year, the media was running headlines like
> National Public Radio’s: “Violent crime is dropping fast in the
> U.S. – even if Americans don’t believe it.” “At some point in
> 2022 … there was just a tipping point where violence started to fall
> and it just continued to fall,” NPR claimed. But now the FBI has
> itself admitted its violent crime numbers were way off.
>
> Even as polls show that Americans are concerned about crime, the FBI
> and the media are making it difficult to see how crime rates have
> changed over the last few years. A Gallup survey late last year found
> that 92% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats thought crime was
> increasing. A February Rasmussen Reports survey found that, by a
> 4.7-to-1 margin, likely voters say violent crime in the U.S. is
> getting worse (61%), not better (13%). A Gallup poll found in March
> that “crime and violence” was Americans’ second biggest concern,
> after inflation. But the media and politicians used the inaccurate FBI
> data to try to convince people that they were wrong.
>
> “This FBI report is stunning because it now doesn’t state that
> violent crime in 2022 was much higher than it had previously reported,
> nor does it explain why the new rate is so much higher, and it issued
> no press release about this large revision,” said David Mustard, the
> Josiah Meigs Distinguished Professor at the University of Georgia who
> researches extensively on crime. “This lack of transparency harms
> the FBI’s credibility.'

Not a day goes by that you don't see someone running from the cops by
foot, bicycle, e-bike, car, motorbike. They're dropping things as they
run but they are too fat to outrun the cops. Liberal DA's just turn them
loose again. Americans have had enough of Democrats.