An election forecaster who previously predicted a landslide victory for
Vice President Kamala Harris has switched his prediction to former
President Donald Trump.

Thomas Miller, a data scientist who accurately predicted the 2020
presidential election result, previously backed Harris to win in 2024,
telling Newsweek in September that the Democrat was on track to win more
than 400 votes in the Electoral College, according to his model.

The model, which relies on betting odds as opposed to polling data
aggregates, is now saying that Trump is the favorite, with its most recent
prediction estimating the Republican could win 345 votes in the Electoral
College.

Newsweek has mapped out what a potential 345 Electoral College win could
look like for the former president. In this scenario he sweeps the South
and Midwest, winning all the states where Harris has only a single-digit
lead, per FiveThirtyEight's forecast.

A Trump Landslide?
Electoral map based on Thomas Miller's October 29 forecast
Trump would win one of Maine's congressional district votes in this
scenario, splitting the state's votes 3-1.

The model first began predicting a narrow Trump victory on October 7, when
betting odds began swinging towards the former president.

Miller's model prioritizes betting odds over polling data and also uses
historical trends from previous elections to balance the data with what he
calls "fundamentals," something that most other models do as well.

For the 2024 election, Miller is using the betting site PredictIt to fuel
his model, which was the same data that his successful 2020 prediction was
based on.

However, the data and the fundamentals are predicting different results.
Miller wrote on his website on October 20 that "technical and fundamental
analyses are not in alignment," as the historical trends indicate a
Democratic victory, in conflict with the betting odds saying that Trump
will win.

This matches what fellow election forecaster Allan Lichtman has also said
about the election. In contrast to other forecasters, Lichtman's "Keys to
the White House" model relies almost exclusively on long term historical
trends, and has continually predicted a Harris victory.

While polling still indicates that the race is tight, betting odds have
continued to favor Trump, with Polymarket odds showing Trump leading
Harris nationally with a 60.3 percent chance of winning, compared to
Harris' 39.7 percent.

While betting odds have consistently predicted the right winner of the
presidential election historically, they are not based on the same
representational statistics as polling and are therefore more prone to
biases.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-landslide-forecast-betting-odds-
2024-election-1977183

"Democrat Suicides BEGIN!" <kill.yourselves.now@jump.off.the.bridge>
wrote in news:2301dd0fe995e52e096f7aad4139d4d7@dizum.com:

> An election forecaster who previously predicted a landslide victory
> for Vice President Kamala Harris has switched his prediction to former
> President Donald Trump.
>
> Thomas Miller, a data scientist who accurately predicted the 2020
> presidential election result, previously backed Harris to win in 2024,
> telling Newsweek in September that the Democrat was on track to win
> more than 400 votes in the Electoral College, according to his model.
>
> The model, which relies on betting odds as opposed to polling data
> aggregates, is now saying that Trump is the favorite, with its most
> recent prediction estimating the Republican could win 345 votes in the
> Electoral College.
>
That betting model is subject to fraud
==============
Election betting site Polymarket has been giving Trump good odds. But it
also might have a big fraud problem

The site has favored Donald Trump to beat Kamala Harris in the
presidential race, but new research gives reason to doubt those odds

https://qz.com/polymarket-election-betting-fraud-trump-harris-odds-
1851685639
===========

Patrick Byrne, the former Overstock.com CEO who donated millions of
dollars to efforts investigating the 2020 election, warned on Telegram
this week of a cyberattack that would rig the election and lead to
imminent �death and cannibalism� unless Americans stand together.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/31/politics/maga-activists-preparing-
undermine-election-if-trump-loses/index.html

=============

Cannibalism? Really?!!!