The presidential race is a toss-up as the last key state in Vice President
Harris� column drifts towards former President Trump.

But even as polls show a tight race, some voters are rethinking long-held
beliefs. This week�s Power Rankings draws up the new Harris and Trump
coalitions and shows how they could propel either candidate to victory.

Harris ties herself to an unpopular Joe Biden during media blitz
Harris will make headlines tomorrow when she sits down for her first ever
formal interview on Fox News.

The sit-down will be the Vice President�s biggest and most closely-watched
opportunity in an uneven media tour.

Her talk show appearances went smoothly, and an interview on Call Her
Daddy, one of the country�s most popular podcasts, generated the same kind
of excitement among young women that Trump has gained from male
influencers.

But last Wednesday, asked if she would have done something differently
than President Biden during his administration, Harris told ABC�s The View
that "there is not a thing that comes to mind."

The answer reminded voters that Harris is the second-in-command in a
presidency they say has made their lives worse.

In NBC�s latest national poll, 45% of voters say Biden�s policies have
hurt them and their families, while only a quarter say those policies have
helped. That is a "net hurt" of 20 points.

Voters view Trump�s policies much more positively, with 44% saying they
helped and 31% saying they hurt. In other words, a "net help" of 13
points.

The same poll found Trump�s retrospective job approval is higher than in
any of their surveys when he was president.

Harris� campaign knows that tying the Vice President to Biden isn�t a
winner. In her first interview as the Democratic nominee, Harris said it
was time to "turn the page on the last decade;" her bus tells voters she
offers "a new way forward."

Trump allies have said they will use the clip in new ads, though it�s not
yet clear whether that will happen.

Democrats counter that elections are as much about personal qualities as
the issues. Harris leads on caring about people like you (+8), and being
honest and trustworthy (+11) in a recent New York Times/Siena poll. At the
same time, Trump is up three points on being a strong leader, while Harris
leads by eight on being fun.

Either way, Harris� answer was unhelpful to her campaign, which has weeks
left to persuade voters that she would do things differently.

Trump stronger after the vice presidential debate
It has now been two weeks since the only debate between Minnesota Gov. Tim
Walz and Ohio Sen. JD Vance, and two polls conducted after the showdown
suggest that Vance won the night.

Trump is up one point against Harris at 47%-46% among registered voters in
NBC�s survey. Harris previously led by six points.
Harris is two points ahead of Trump at 50%-48% among likely voters in ABC
and Ipsos� survey. She previously led by five points.
Those are meaningful shifts in Trump�s direction, and NBC�s poll also
showed a modest improvement in Vance�s favorability.

In polls showing a tight race, a new electorate emerges
The polls above are two of many showing a race within the margin of error.

But beneath the top lines, there are signs that the Democratic and
Republican coalitions are changing. And while Trump�s gains with Black and
Latino voters have been talked about the most, both coalitions are strong
enough to win an election.

Trump is gaining in four key voting groups. Compared to the 2020
electorate, he is up six points with male voters, while Democrats have
shed 20 points worth of Black vote, 10 points of Hispanic vote, and 3
points with young voters, according to the Times/Siena poll.

The Black and Hispanic gains are the most important for the GOP. These
voters can make all the difference in states like Pennsylvania and
Arizona.

The column on the left in the charts shows the percentage that each group
made up of the 2020 electorate according to the Fox News Voter Analysis.
The percentages apply within each voter category (race, age, etc).

Men, for example, made up 47% of the electorate, which means 53% of voters
were women.

That is where the picture becomes more complicated for the Trump campaign.

As men have shifted six points towards the former president, women have
shifted three points towards Harris. Voters with a college degree have
shifted 10 points towards the Vice President, giving her an overall 26-
point advantage with the bloc. And Harris has flipped seniors.

These are some of the most reliable and over-represented voting groups in
the U.S. Only about a third of adults have a college degree, for example,
but this group accounts for 40% of voters.

In other words, the gains that Trump has made with some key groups are
counterbalanced by Harris� gains with other voters.

Harris loses her lead in the forecast
Battleground polls also show a race on a knife�s edge.

Surveys from the Wall Street Journal and Quinnipiac across the three key
Rust Belt states have the candidates within a few points, matching more
than a dozen other high-quality polls over the last month.

This forecast previously gave Harris an advantage in Michigan. The state
has delivered for Democrats since 2016, and the GOP�s turnout operation
appears to be particularly disorganized there.

But that isn�t enough when the polls show a race this tight. Both
campaigns are making regular visits, and Republicans have booked more
spending here than any other battleground state (except Pennsylvania,
where ad rates are higher).

Michigan moves from Lean D to Toss Up.

After that shift, the Power Rankings predict that Harris will win at least
226 electoral votes, with Trump winning at least 219. There are seven
states worth 93 votes in the middle.

Harris has a six-vote edge that includes Nebraska�s second district. That
is important for the Vice President, since a victory there, combined with
the Rust Belt battlegrounds, would give her an outright win.

But with so many coin-flip states, this race looks like an electoral
college dogfight. The presidential election moves from Harris Lead to Toss
Up.

Democrats hold a ticket-splitting edge in battleground states, including
Nevada
The Senate forecast still puts Republicans in control with 51 seats. An
all-but-certain flip in West Virginia and an edge in Montana gets them
over the line.

FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: SENATE REPUBLICANS TAKE CHARGE

Some polls still show GOP Senate candidates running behind Trump. In a
recent Arizona survey, the chasm was 12 points wide, with Trump leading
the presidential race by five and Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego with a
seven-point lead over Republican Kari Lake.

History suggests that the gap will diminish by election night. The
direction of these ticket-splitters is less clear. Either Trump voters
will come home to downballot GOP candidates, or support for the former
president is softer than polls suggest.

For now, with polls showing Nevada�s Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen well
ahead of Republican challenger Sam Brown, their Senate race moves from
Toss Up to Lean D.

Three weeks until election night
More than four million voters have now cast a ballot. Early voting is
underway in all the battlegrounds except Nevada.

Tomorrow, Fox News will be the only place to see both presidential
candidates. At 11AM eastern, watch Harris Faulkner�s town hall with Trump
in front of an all-woman audience in Georgia. Hours later, Bret Baier will
sit down with Harris in Pennsylvania. The interview airs at 6PM on Special
Report.

Fox News Media has also proposed a second Harris-Trump debate to be
moderated by Baier and Martha MacCallum.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-power-rankings-harris-loses-her-
lead-new-electorate-emerges