Why Trump Can�t Win
Mar 6, 2024
Reed Galen

Since Donald Trump incited an insurrection following his 2020 electoral
loss, he has moderated neither his rhetoric nor his behavior; on the
contrary, both have become more extreme. If this depresses Republican
voter turnout even marginally, Trump is headed for a major defeat this
November.

WASHINGTON, DC � Donald Trump was the unlikeliest of American presidents.
When he launched his campaign in 2016, the closest he had come to
executive authority was pretending to fire contestants on a business-
themed reality show. As ridiculous as it seemed, the image of Trump
sitting behind a massive boardroom table uttering his imitable
catchphrase � �You�re fired� � convinced millions of American voters,
including many who hadn�t voted previously, that he was a man who knew
how to get things done.

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That impression, together with good timing and good luck, enabled Trump
to defeat political icon Hillary Clinton in a race that appeared tailor-
made for her. But contrary to what Trump might claim, his victory was
extremely narrow. In fact, he lost the popular vote by 2.8 million votes
� a larger margin than any other US president in history. Since then,
Trump has proved toxic at the ballot box. In the 2018 midterms, the
Democrats trounced Trump�s Republican Party. In the 2020 presidential
election, Trump lost narrowly in the Electoral College, and in a
landslide in the popular vote. In the 2022 midterm elections, Trump�s
handpicked candidates were routed across the country, and Democratic
candidates either held their seats or won Republican seats in key states
� including Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin � often by
wide margins. While these failures might have inspired some Republican
grumbling, Trump ended up firmly in control of the party apparatus, its
leadership, and its most extreme members. It is a pattern the GOP will
come to regret later this year, when both Trump and the Republican Party
face what is likely to be a devastating electoral defeat.
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Trump�s erratic behavior, anti-democratic rhetoric, and threats against
his opponents will contribute to his loss in November�s presidential
election. But it is America�s demographic makeup that will ultimately
send Trump into permanent retirement. The old wisdom that �demographics
is destiny� � coined by the French philosopher Auguste Comte � may well
be more relevant to the outcome than it has been to any previous
presidential election.
Between the 2016 and 2024 elections, some 20 million older voters will
have died, and about 32 million younger Americans will have reached
voting age. Many young voters disdain both parties, and Republicans are
actively recruiting (mostly white men) on college campuses. But the
issues that are dearest to Gen Z�s heart � such as reproductive rights,
democracy, and the environment � will keep most of them voting
Democratic.
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The reality is that since Trump entered US politics in 2016, the
Republican Party has become older, whiter, more male, and more extreme.
It is also smaller, and Trump�s unwillingness to cross his base makes it
difficult, if not impossible, to attract moderates and independents.
US President Joe Biden has more voters available to him than Trump does.
That does not mean victory will be easy, but it does mean he can survive
more voters staying home. If Trump is to win, he will need every possible
voter in his party to show up, and he must pick up votes from as-yet-
undecided Americans who might have long ago soured on him, not only
because of his personal behavior, but also because of policy. The
Republican Party is on the wrong side of every major issue facing the
American people. Consider reproductive rights. The Republican-hijacked US
Supreme Court decided in 2022 to overturn Roe v. Wade, which had ensured
abortion rights for half a century. Ultra-conservative state legislatures
have outlawed abortion even in cases of rape or incest. And the Alabama
Supreme Court recently delivered a ruling equating frozen embryos with
children. This trend has pushed women and moderates even more firmly into
the arms of the Democrats � or, at least, into the undecided or �anyone
but Trump� camps. On national security, Trump has often aligned himself
with America�s traditional adversaries, thereby upsetting, angering, or
confusing a key electoral cohort. Many older Republicans still carry the
spirit of Ronald Reagan in their hearts, and view America as a �shining
city on a hill,� a beacon of freedom and democracy to people around the
world. For those who are old enough to remember the Cold War, Russia is
an American foe through and through. These Republicans largely find
Russia�s invasion of democratic Ukraine unacceptable: one recent survey
found that 43% of Republicans believe the United States is providing
either too little or the right amount of aid to Ukraine. They certainly
do not approve of Trump�s threats to abandon NATO and even encourage
Russian aggression against members that do not meet their military-
spending obligations. Trump�s affinity for authoritarian states � from
Russia to Hungary to Saudi Arabia � is anathema to them. Until this week,
Republicans still had another option: Nikki Haley, a former US ambassador
to the United Nations. Haley�s escalating attacks on Trump�s policy
record seem to have had an impact. In the New Hampshire, Nevada, and
South Carolina primaries, she captured about 30% of the vote. But Haley
has now ended her presidential campaign, after losing the �Super Tuesday�
primaries in 14 states. So far, however, Haley has declined to endorse
Trump, declaring that it is up to him to win the support of her voters.
And there is good reason to doubt that he will succeed. In fact, rather
than voting for Trump in November, many of Haley�s supporters are likely
either to stay home or to vote for Biden. In Iowa, 49% of self-identified
Haley caucus-goers said they would do just that. Trump lost the 2020
election, and then incited an insurrection. Since then, he has moderated
neither his rhetoric nor his behavior; on the contrary, he has become
more extreme. If this depresses Republican voter turnout even marginally,
Trump is in for a major defeat. There simply aren�t enough American
voters willing to put him back in the White House.