arnold@skeeve.com (Aharon Robbins) writes:

> In article <wwvfrrgrci1.fsf@LkoBDZeT.terraraq.uk>,
> Richard Kettlewell <invalid@invalid.invalid> wrote:
>>The Real Bev <bashley101@gmail.com> writes:
>>> On 8/6/24 6:55 AM, Stefan Ram wrote:
>>>> The Real Bev <bashley101@gmail.com> wrote or quoted:
>>>>>What happens when there are no more toolmakers?
>>>> Well, if by "toolmakers" you mean those devs cranking out text
>>>> editors, search engines, or AI chatbots: We're swimming in them these
>>>> days, more than ever before in human history! So I'd say: I'll cross
>>>> that bridge when I come to it, if we ever actually run low on those
>>>> folks. (Sure, some tech fields are hurting for talent, but that's
>>>> probably not because of the new AI chatbots hitting the scene.)
>>>
>>> I mean people who have serious work to do and know how to make a
>>> computer do it for them. REAL experts. If there are only people who
>>> know how to use the tools already provided for them, who will make NEW
>>> tools?
>>
>>Obviously nobody. But it’s a hypothetical situation which isn’t about to
>>happen.
>
> Don't be sure. A CS professor I know told me this last week:
>
> I'm one of the very few that teach Systems. It amazes me that
> our PhD students almost all in AI have never heard of a program
> counter.
>
> Scary times. I'm glad I retire from software development in a few years.

Fear not:

You can twist perception
Reality won't budge.
-- ``Show Don't Tell'', Neil Peart, 1989.

The Real Bev <bashley101@gmail.com> writes:

> On 8/9/24 1:28 PM, D wrote:
>>
>> On Fri, 9 Aug 2024, The Real Bev wrote:
>>
>>> On 8/7/24 12:57 AM, Richard Kettlewell wrote:
>>>> The Real Bev <bashley101@gmail.com> writes:
>>>>> On 8/6/24 6:55 AM, Stefan Ram wrote:
>>>>>> The Real Bev <bashley101@gmail.com> wrote or quoted:
>>>>>>> What happens when there are no more toolmakers?
>>>>>> Well, if by "toolmakers" you mean those devs cranking out text
>>>>>> editors, search engines, or AI chatbots: We're swimming in them these
>>>>>> days, more than ever before in human history! So I'd say: I'll cross
>>>>>> that bridge when I come to it, if we ever actually run low on those
>>>>>> folks. (Sure, some tech fields are hurting for talent, but that's
>>>>>> probably not because of the new AI chatbots hitting the scene.)
>>>>> I mean people who have serious work to do and know how to make a
>>>>> computer do it for them. REAL experts. If there are only people who
>>>>> know how to use the tools already provided for them, who will make NEW
>>>>> tools?
>>>> Obviously nobody. But it’s a hypothetical situation which isn’t
>>>> about to
>>>> happen.
>>>
>>> I'm not so sure. I look at the general dumbing down of our (and
>>> apparently non-USA) population and wonder if there are enough
>>> intelligent people left to make a difference. Look at the
>>> schools. Loot at the governments. Look at the media. Is there any
>>> reason to be optimistic?
>>>
>> In my case... short term no, long term, yes. We've survived, as a
>> species,
>> world wars, famines, pestilence. Anything we're seeing today is nothing in
>> comparison.
>
> We've never had as many people on earth as we have today, and there
> will be more. At least in cities the big problem is just too many
> people, most of them pretty stupid.

Are you aware of current fertility rates? Check it out.

On Tue, 13 Aug 2024 22:43:40 -0300, Johanne Fairchild <jfairchild@tudado.org> wrote:
>The Real Bev <bashley101@gmail.com> writes:
>> On 8/9/24 1:28 PM, D wrote:
>>> On Fri, 9 Aug 2024, The Real Bev wrote:
>>>> On 8/7/24 12:57 AM, Richard Kettlewell wrote:
>>>>> The Real Bev <bashley101@gmail.com> writes:
>>>>>> On 8/6/24 6:55 AM, Stefan Ram wrote:
>>>>>>> The Real Bev <bashley101@gmail.com> wrote or quoted:
>>>>>>>> What happens when there are no more toolmakers?
>>>>>>> Well, if by "toolmakers" you mean those devs cranking out text
>>>>>>> editors, search engines, or AI chatbots: We're swimming in them these
>>>>>>> days, more than ever before in human history! So I'd say: I'll cross
>>>>>>> that bridge when I come to it, if we ever actually run low on those
>>>>>>> folks. (Sure, some tech fields are hurting for talent, but that's
>>>>>>> probably not because of the new AI chatbots hitting the scene.)
>>>>>> I mean people who have serious work to do and know how to make a
>>>>>> computer do it for them. REAL experts. If there are only people who
>>>>>> know how to use the tools already provided for them, who will make NEW
>>>>>> tools?
>>>>> Obviously nobody. But it�s a hypothetical situation which isn�t
>>>>> about to
>>>>> happen.
>>>> I'm not so sure. I look at the general dumbing down of our (and
>>>> apparently non-USA) population and wonder if there are enough
>>>> intelligent people left to make a difference. Look at the
>>>> schools. Loot at the governments. Look at the media. Is there any
>>>> reason to be optimistic?
>>> In my case... short term no, long term, yes. We've survived, as a
>>> species,
>>> world wars, famines, pestilence. Anything we're seeing today is nothing in
>>> comparison.
>>>
>> We've never had as many people on earth as we have today, and there
>> will be more. At least in cities the big problem is just too many
>> people, most of them pretty stupid.
>
>Are you aware of current fertility rates? Check it out.

hmm . . .

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=fertility+rate
>...
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate
>...
>1950 to the present and projections
>The Total Fertility Rate for six regions and the World, 1950-2100
>The table[22] shows that after 1965, the demographic transition
>spread around the world, and the global TFR began a long decline
>that continues in the 21st century.
>World historical TFR
>(1950�2020)
>Years Global Average More developed Less developed
>1950�1955 4.86 2.84 5.94
>1955�1960 5.01 2.75 6.15
>1960�1965 4.70 2.71 5.64
>1965�1970 5.08 2.51 6.23
>1970�1975 4.83 2.32 5.87
>1975�1980 4.08 2.01 4.88
>1980�1985 3.75 1.89 4.40
>1985�1990 3.52 1.82 4.03
>1990�1995 3.31 1.78 3.71
>1995�2000 2.88 1.58 3.18
>2000�2005 2.73 1.57 2.98
>2005�2010 2.62 1.61 2.81
>2010�2015 2.59 1.69 2.74
>2015�2020 2.52 1.67 2.66
>2020-2025 2.35 1.51 2.47
>The chart shows that the decline in the TFR since the 1960s has
>occurred in every region of the world. The global TFR is
>projected to continue declining for the remainder of the century,
>and reach a below-replacement level of 1.8 by 2100.[23][24]
[end quoted excerpt]

what if they gave a war and nobody came?