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alt / alt.atheism / Re: Why The Anti Trump Crusade Will Succeed

Subject: Re: Why The Anti Trump Crusade Will Succeed
From: Andrew W
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Date: Fri, 23 Aug 2024 01:42 UTC
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From: space@defense.com (Andrew W)
Newsgroups: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh,comp.os.linux.advocacy,alt.atheism
Subject: Re: Why The Anti Trump Crusade Will Succeed
Date: Fri, 23 Aug 2024 11:42:21 +1000
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"John Smyth" wrote in message news:va275r$1fg87$9@solani.org...
>
>To hear Defendant Trump tell it, the fact that he keeps getting indicted
>by prosecutors is a boon to his reelection effort. “Any time they file an
>indictment, we go way up in the polls,” he said at a dinner shortly after
>he was charged by the Justice Department with attempting to overturn the
>2020 election.
>

And you woke morons still can't figure out why Trump's polls keep going up
every time.

>
>This counterintuitive claim is questionable on its face — if not
>demonstrably false upon close examination — but it is one among many
>dubious arguments that Trump and his allies have advanced in recent
>months as he has been confronted with four different prosecutions brought
>by the Justice Department, the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and,
>most recently, the Fulton County District Attorney’s Office in Georgia.
>
>A new POLITICO Magazine/Ipsos poll provides some bad news for Trump: Even
>as he remains the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination, the
>cascading indictments are likely to take a toll on his general election
>prospects.
>
>The survey results suggest Americans are taking the cases seriously —
>particularly the Justice Department’s 2020 election case — and that most
>people are skeptical of Trump’s claim to be the victim of a legally
>baseless witch hunt or an elaborate, multi-jurisdictional effort to
>“weaponize” law enforcement authorities against him.
>
>Furthermore, public sentiment in certain areas — including how quickly to
>hold a trial and whether to incarcerate Trump if he’s convicted — is
>moving against the former president when compared to a previous POLITICO
>Magazine/Ipsos poll conducted in June. This latest poll was conducted
>from Aug. 18 to Aug. 21, roughly two-and-a-half weeks after Trump’s
>second federal indictment and several days after Trump was criminally
>charged in Fulton County. The poll had a sample of 1,032 adults, age 18
>or older, who were interviewed online; it has a margin of error of plus
>or minus 3.2 percentage points for all respondents.
>
>Here are some of the most notable findings from our latest survey.
>1. Most Americans believe Trump should stand trial before the 2024
>election
>
>On Monday, Trump’s lawyers will face off against federal prosecutors
>before U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan over when to schedule his trial
>in the Justice Department’s 2020 election case — a high-stakes dispute
>that could have dramatic implications for the 2024 election. Federal
>prosecutors have proposed that the trial begin on Jan. 2, 2024, while
>Trump’s lawyers have countered that the trial should take place in April
>2026. If Trump gets his way, that would, perhaps not coincidentally,
>leave him plenty of time to complete his reelection bid and, if
>successful, shut the case down after retaking the White House.
>
>Americans are far closer to the Justice Department’s position than to
>Trump’s. Fifty-nine percent of respondents in the poll said that the
>federal trial in Trump’s 2020 election subversion case should take place
>before the 2024 Republican primaries begin early next year. A slightly
>higher number — 61 percent of all respondents — said that the trial
>should take place before the general election next November.
>
>There was a predictable partisan split among Democrats and Republicans,
>with nearly 90 percent of Democratic respondents seeking an early trial
>date and roughly a third of Republican respondents agreeing.
>
>It was the reaction of independents, however, that may prove most ominous
>for Trump. Nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of independents said that Trump
>should stand trial before next November — a figure that suggests
>particular interest in and attentiveness to a case that effectively
>alleges that Trump tried to steal the last election. By way of a rough
>comparison, when we asked a similar question in June following Trump’s
>indictment by the Justice Department in Florida concerning his retention
>of classified documents, fewer than half of independent respondents (48
>percent) said that the trial in that case should take place before next
>November.
>2. About half of the country believes Trump is guilty in the pending
>prosecutions
>
>The claims on the part of Trump and his supporters that he is the victim
>of a “witch hunt” also seem to be having little effect on the views of
>Americans across the entire population. About half of the country —
>including overwhelming majorities of Democrats and roughly half of
>independents — believe that Trump is guilty of the series of charges.
>
>Among the four pending cases, the Manhattan District Attorney’s
>prosecution produced slightly less robust figures, with a total of just
>48 percent of respondents reporting that they believe Trump is guilty in
>that case, which concerns alleged hush money payments to the adult film
>star Stormy Daniels.
>
>Befitting our polarized country, bare majorities said that they believe
>Trump is guilty in the other cases — 51 percent in the pending Justice
>Department and Fulton County prosecutions concerning the 2020 election,
>and 52 percent in the Justice Department’s classified documents case.
>3. A conviction in DOJ’s 2020 election case would hurt Trump in the
>general election
>
>Our latest poll also makes clear that it would be unhelpful for Trump’s
>presidential bid if he is federally convicted of a criminal scheme to
>steal the last election at the same time that he is asking the American
>people to send him back to the White House.
>
>A plurality of respondents (44 percent) said that a conviction in the
>case would have no impact on their likelihood of supporting Trump, but
>the numbers tipped decisively against Trump among those who said that the
>result would inform their vote. Nearly one-third of respondents (32
>percent) said that a conviction in the case would make them less likely
>to support Trump, including about one-third of independents (34 percent).
>
>Only 13 percent of respondents said that a conviction would make them
>more likely to support Trump, and that figure was comprised mostly of
>Republicans.
>4. There is considerable room for the numbers to get worse for Trump
>
>Despite the seeming tsunami of news coverage of Trump’s legal issues, a
>sizable portion of the public is still learning about the alleged crimes
>of the former president.
>
>Most respondents said that they understand the charges in the pending
>cases either very well or somewhat well, with the highest numbers — more
>than 60 percent — saying so about the federal prosecutions. But somewhere
>between roughly one-quarter and one-third of respondents said that they
>do not understand the charges in the cases well.
>
>
>That could change as the cases proceed through litigation — and, in
>particular, if one or more cases goes to trial before next November.
>
>It is reasonable to assume that the media coverage and the facts revealed
>at any trials would, on balance, be unhelpful to Trump as a political
>matter, even if he manages to avoid convictions. Criminal defendants
>generally do not come out looking better at the end of highly publicized
>trials, even if they get off at the end of the day.
>
>If there is a strong defense to the charges as a factual matter, Trump
>and his lawyers have yet to provide it. After the latest indictment in
>Fulton County, for instance, Trump publicly said that he would hold a
>press conference and release a report that would prove his innocence.
>
>Curious Americans were ultimately left hanging. Two days after his
>announcement, Trump called off the presser.
>5. Half of the country believes Trump should go to prison if convicted in
>DOJ’s Jan. 6 case
>
>We also asked respondents what the punishment should be, if anything, if
>Trump is convicted in the Justice Department’s 2020 election case. Fifty
>percent of respondents said that he should go to prison, including a
>large majority of Democrats (87 percent) and a slight majority of
>independents (51 percent).
>
>Another large number of respondents were open to alternative sanctions:
>16 percent of respondents said that Trump should get probation, but no
>imprisonment, if convicted, and 12 percent of respondents said that he
>should simply get a financial penalty. Only 18 percent (largely comprised
>of Republicans) said that there should be no penalty even upon a
>conviction.
>
>The results suggest that Americans may view Trump’s conduct surrounding
>the Jan. 6 riot and his effort to overturn the election as more serious
>than those in the criminal cases that were filed against Trump earlier
>this year. When we asked respondents comparable questions in June, only
>43 percent of respondents said that Trump should go to prison if
>convicted in the Justice Department’s classified documents case, while 40
>percent said that Trump should go to prison if convicted in the Manhattan
>District Attorney’s case regarding the payments to Stormy Daniels.
>6. Trump and the GOP’s ‘weaponization’ defense appears to be having
>limited traction
>
>For months, Trump and his Republican allies have claimed that the Justice
>Department has been “weaponized” against him by President Joe Biden and
>Attorney General Merrick Garland. We asked a series of questions in order
>to try to get some understanding of what Americans make of this claim.
>The results were decidedly mixed for team Trump.
>
>Fifty-nine percent of respondents — including nearly two-thirds of
>independents — said that the Justice Department’s decision to indict
>Trump in the 2020 election case was based on a fair evaluation of the
>evidence and the law. At the same time, however, 44 percent of
>respondents — including 20 percent of Democrats and 40 percent of
>independents — said that the decision was based on trying to gain a
>political advantage for Biden.
>
>In fact, more people believe Trump is guilty of weaponizing the legal
>system than Biden. Fifty-three percent of respondents — including 56
>percent of independents — said that the Trump administration actively
>used the Justice Department to investigate political enemies with little
>or no evidence of actual wrongdoing. The comparable number for the Biden
>administration was 45 percent across all respondents, including 43
>percent of independents.
>7. Trump is the prevailing villain in the story of his indictments
>
>To further test whether the indictments are helping Trump, we asked
>respondents if they had favorable or unfavorable opinions of the actions,
>statements and behavior of key players in the federal cases — including
>not just Trump, but Biden, Garland, special counsel Jack Smith and the
>Justice Department more generally.
>
>The results were decidedly unhelpful to Trump. Respondents provided Trump
>with a net favorability rating of -31 percent — the worst figure, by far,
>in this battery of questions (27 percent favorable vs. 58 percent
>unfavorable). Biden fared much better than Trump but still came out with
>a net favorability rating of -9 percent (36 percent favorable vs. 45
>percent unfavorable).
>
>By contrast, the Justice Department appears to have come out slightly
>ahead in the scheme of things, though just barely. Respondents reported a
>net positive favorability rating for the Justice Department of 7 percent
>(40 percent favorable vs. 33 percent unfavorable). Smith’s conduct
>received a net positive favorability rating of 6 percent (26 percent
>favorable vs. 20 percent unfavorable).
>
>And what about the famously circumspect and temperamentally moderate
>Garland? Perhaps appropriately for the man, Garland came out exactly
>even, with a net favorability rating of 0 percent in relation to his
>handling of the cases (22 percent favorable vs. 22 percent unfavorable).
>
>Notably, a majority of respondents didn’t know whether to approve or
>disapprove of how Smith and Garland were handling the cases. Both men are
>still largely in the background. That may change when Trump gets to
>trial.

SubjectRepliesAuthor
o Why The Anti Trump Crusade Will Succeed

By: John Smyth on Tue, 20 Aug 2024

3John Smyth

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