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alt / alt.atheism / Why The Anti Trump Crusade Will Succeed

SubjectAuthor
o Why The Anti Trump Crusade Will SucceedJohn Smyth

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Subject: Why The Anti Trump Crusade Will Succeed
From: John Smyth
Newsgroups: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh, comp.os.linux.advocacy, alt.atheism
Followup: alt.atheism.satire
Organization: Heritage Foundation
Date: Sun, 25 Aug 2024 16:15 UTC
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From: smythlejon2@outlook.com (John Smyth)
Newsgroups: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh,comp.os.linux.advocacy,alt.atheism
Subject: Why The Anti Trump Crusade Will Succeed
Followup-To: alt.atheism.satire
Date: Sun, 25 Aug 2024 16:15:58 -0000 (UTC)
Organization: Heritage Foundation
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To hear Defendant Trump tell it, the fact that he keeps getting indicted by
prosecutors is a boon to his reelection effort. �Any time they file an
indictment, we go way up in the polls,� he said at a dinner shortly after
he was charged by the Justice Department with attempting to overturn the
2020 election.

This counterintuitive claim is questionable on its face � if not
demonstrably false upon close examination � but it is one among many
dubious arguments that Trump and his allies have advanced in recent months
as he has been confronted with four different prosecutions brought by the
Justice Department, the Manhattan District Attorney�s Office and, most
recently, the Fulton County District Attorney�s Office in Georgia.

A new POLITICO Magazine/Ipsos poll provides some bad news for Trump: Even
as he remains the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination, the
cascading indictments are likely to take a toll on his general election
prospects.

The survey results suggest Americans are taking the cases seriously �
particularly the Justice Department�s 2020 election case � and that most
people are skeptical of Trump�s claim to be the victim of a legally
baseless witch hunt or an elaborate, multi-jurisdictional effort to
�weaponize� law enforcement authorities against him.

Furthermore, public sentiment in certain areas � including how quickly to
hold a trial and whether to incarcerate Trump if he�s convicted � is moving
against the former president when compared to a previous POLITICO
Magazine/Ipsos poll conducted in June. This latest poll was conducted from
Aug. 18 to Aug. 21, roughly two-and-a-half weeks after Trump�s second
federal indictment and several days after Trump was criminally charged in
Fulton County. The poll had a sample of 1,032 adults, age 18 or older, who
were interviewed online; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2
percentage points for all respondents.

Here are some of the most notable findings from our latest survey.
1. Most Americans believe Trump should stand trial before the 2024 election

On Monday, Trump�s lawyers will face off against federal prosecutors before
U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan over when to schedule his trial in the
Justice Department�s 2020 election case � a high-stakes dispute that could
have dramatic implications for the 2024 election. Federal prosecutors have
proposed that the trial begin on Jan. 2, 2024, while Trump�s lawyers have
countered that the trial should take place in April 2026. If Trump gets his
way, that would, perhaps not coincidentally, leave him plenty of time to
complete his reelection bid and, if successful, shut the case down after
retaking the White House.

Americans are far closer to the Justice Department�s position than to
Trump�s. Fifty-nine percent of respondents in the poll said that the
federal trial in Trump�s 2020 election subversion case should take place
before the 2024 Republican primaries begin early next year. A slightly
higher number � 61 percent of all respondents � said that the trial should
take place before the general election next November.

There was a predictable partisan split among Democrats and Republicans,
with nearly 90 percent of Democratic respondents seeking an early trial
date and roughly a third of Republican respondents agreeing.

It was the reaction of independents, however, that may prove most ominous
for Trump. Nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of independents said that Trump
should stand trial before next November � a figure that suggests particular
interest in and attentiveness to a case that effectively alleges that Trump
tried to steal the last election. By way of a rough comparison, when we
asked a similar question in June following Trump�s indictment by the
Justice Department in Florida concerning his retention of classified
documents, fewer than half of independent respondents (48 percent) said
that the trial in that case should take place before next November.
2. About half of the country believes Trump is guilty in the pending
prosecutions

The claims on the part of Trump and his supporters that he is the victim of
a �witch hunt� also seem to be having little effect on the views of
Americans across the entire population. About half of the country �
including overwhelming majorities of Democrats and roughly half of
independents � believe that Trump is guilty of the series of charges.

Among the four pending cases, the Manhattan District Attorney�s prosecution
produced slightly less robust figures, with a total of just 48 percent of
respondents reporting that they believe Trump is guilty in that case, which
concerns alleged hush money payments to the adult film star Stormy Daniels.

Befitting our polarized country, bare majorities said that they believe
Trump is guilty in the other cases � 51 percent in the pending Justice
Department and Fulton County prosecutions concerning the 2020 election, and
52 percent in the Justice Department�s classified documents case.
3. A conviction in DOJ�s 2020 election case would hurt Trump in the general
election

Our latest poll also makes clear that it would be unhelpful for Trump�s
presidential bid if he is federally convicted of a criminal scheme to steal
the last election at the same time that he is asking the American people to
send him back to the White House.

A plurality of respondents (44 percent) said that a conviction in the case
would have no impact on their likelihood of supporting Trump, but the
numbers tipped decisively against Trump among those who said that the
result would inform their vote. Nearly one-third of respondents (32
percent) said that a conviction in the case would make them less likely to
support Trump, including about one-third of independents (34 percent).

Only 13 percent of respondents said that a conviction would make them more
likely to support Trump, and that figure was comprised mostly of
Republicans.
4. There is considerable room for the numbers to get worse for Trump

Despite the seeming tsunami of news coverage of Trump�s legal issues, a
sizable portion of the public is still learning about the alleged crimes of
the former president.

Most respondents said that they understand the charges in the pending cases
either very well or somewhat well, with the highest numbers � more than 60
percent � saying so about the federal prosecutions. But somewhere between
roughly one-quarter and one-third of respondents said that they do not
understand the charges in the cases well.

That could change as the cases proceed through litigation � and, in
particular, if one or more cases goes to trial before next November.

It is reasonable to assume that the media coverage and the facts revealed
at any trials would, on balance, be unhelpful to Trump as a political
matter, even if he manages to avoid convictions. Criminal defendants
generally do not come out looking better at the end of highly publicized
trials, even if they get off at the end of the day.

If there is a strong defense to the charges as a factual matter, Trump and
his lawyers have yet to provide it. After the latest indictment in Fulton
County, for instance, Trump publicly said that he would hold a press
conference and release a report that would prove his innocence.

Curious Americans were ultimately left hanging. Two days after his
announcement, Trump called off the presser.
5. Half of the country believes Trump should go to prison if convicted in
DOJ�s Jan. 6 case

We also asked respondents what the punishment should be, if anything, if
Trump is convicted in the Justice Department�s 2020 election case. Fifty
percent of respondents said that he should go to prison, including a large
majority of Democrats (87 percent) and a slight majority of independents
(51 percent).

Another large number of respondents were open to alternative sanctions: 16
percent of respondents said that Trump should get probation, but no
imprisonment, if convicted, and 12 percent of respondents said that he
should simply get a financial penalty. Only 18 percent (largely comprised
of Republicans) said that there should be no penalty even upon a
conviction.

The results suggest that Americans may view Trump�s conduct surrounding the
Jan. 6 riot and his effort to overturn the election as more serious than
those in the criminal cases that were filed against Trump earlier this
year. When we asked respondents comparable questions in June, only 43
percent of respondents said that Trump should go to prison if convicted in
the Justice Department�s classified documents case, while 40 percent said
that Trump should go to prison if convicted in the Manhattan District
Attorney�s case regarding the payments to Stormy Daniels.
6. Trump and the GOP�s �weaponization� defense appears to be having limited
traction

For months, Trump and his Republican allies have claimed that the Justice
Department has been �weaponized� against him by President Joe Biden and
Attorney General Merrick Garland. We asked a series of questions in order
to try to get some understanding of what Americans make of this claim. The
results were decidedly mixed for team Trump.


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