Nate Silver�s 2024 Election Model Wildly Diverges From His Former Site
FiveThirtyEight

The infamous data journalist says Trump has a 66-percent chance of winning.
The site he founded completely disagrees.

Silver acknowledged that his own ex-site disagrees with his analysis.
�There�s not any one right way to build a model,� he wrote.

FiveThirtyEight was launched by Silver in 2008 as a polling aggregations
blog and was acquired by ESPN in 2013 because it covered a broad array of
statistics, including sports. Eventually, the property was transferred to
ABC News, which is owned by ESPN�s parent company Walt Disney.

Silver has been criticized and mocked for his inaccurate election
predictions. In 2016, for instance, his final model claimed Hillary Clinton
had a 71 percent chance of beating Trump. (He pushed back against his
critics by noting that his forecast showed Trump had a decent chance to
win, and was less overtly optimistic about a Clinton victory than others.)

And when the 2020 election turned out to be much closer than expected, with
media outlets waiting days before calling the race for Biden, Silver lashed
out at those mocking him for claiming Biden had a 90 percent chance of
winning.

�If they�re coming after FiveThirtyEight, then the answer is fuck you, we
did a good job!� Silver exclaimed.
Justin Baragona

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